Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Kano State: buildings, spend and payback

5,046,818 buildings in Kano State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦856bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 11% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

5,046,818

Usable roof area

165 km²

36.5 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦856bn/yr

596 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

6.4 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kano

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦856bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦839bn

Lifetime cash saved₦47.3tn

NPV₦6.79tn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.4 yr

Unlocked energy1.1 TWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity4.63 GWp

Capex₦4.85tn

Year-one energy value₦4.28tn

Lifetime energy value₦202tn

NPV₦34tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kano State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 4.63 GWp
Capital cost: ₦4.85tn
Year 1 savings: ₦4.28tn/yr
NPV: ₦34tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kano State pays back quickly

Of the 4,980,704 buildings in Kano State with a modelled payback, 39.3% pay back inside five years and 11.5% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

39.3%

Payback under 3 years

11.5%

IRR above 20%

42.4%

Under 3 years · 11%3 – 5 years · 28%5 – 7 years · 15%7 – 10 years · 13%Over 10 years · 33%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Kano State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Kano State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kano State consume 2.04 TWh/yr but want 3.14 TWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 65%Suppressed · 35%

Energy wanted

3.14 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

2.04 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

1.1 TWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Kano State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 4,980,704 buildings with a modelled result out of 5,046,818 in Kano State. 2,696,411 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years571,734 (11%)

Under 5 years1,959,469 (39%)

Under 7 years2,704,309 (54%)

Under 10 years3,345,785 (67%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%3,184,529 (63%)

Above 15%2,696,411 (53%)

Above 20%2,139,912 (42%)

Above 25%1,673,304 (33%)

Electricity billing bands in Kano State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kano State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	1,803,092	151,172	₦418bn	₦413bn	21%	4.9 yr
C	932,460	111,348	₦130bn	₦126bn	9%	9.4 yr
D	888,228	114,072	₦100bn	₦97.3bn	7%	14.1 yr
E	803,159	104,306	₦89.1bn	₦85.2bn	9%	13.9 yr
B	619,879	80,625	₦119bn	₦117bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	4,941,836	522,489	₦545bn	₦531bn	17%	6.4 yr
Commercial Retail	43,177	11,019	₦3.92bn	₦3.92bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	37,189	13,715	₦74.6bn	₦73.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	17,996	10,465	₦223bn	₦221bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	4,135	2,805	₦897m	₦897m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	1,004	357	₦5.86bn	₦5.84bn	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	546	136	₦1.85bn	₦1.83bn	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	508	412	₦182m	₦182m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	246	56	₦795m	₦793m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	152	61	₦124m	₦124m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	29	8	₦20.4m	₦20.4m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	2,568,098	241,246	₦27bn	₦26.7bn	7%	13.9 yr
30 50m2	1,265,103	142,595	₦48.9bn	₦48.3bn	19%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	846,984	106,803	₦131bn	₦129bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	311,879	54,229	₦179bn	₦174bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	51,041	14,806	₦210bn	₦203bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	3,713	1,844	₦260bn	₦258bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	2,111,394	305,456	₦286bn	₦279bn	9%	9.9 yr
Urban Centre	1,792,657	155,873	₦386bn	₦381bn	21%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	700,152	86,573	₦87.3bn	₦84.8bn	19%	5.6 yr
Unclassified	357,004	9,576	₦90.6bn	₦86.8bn	5%	15.9 yr
Rural	85,611	4,045	₦6.31bn	₦6.23bn	9%	9.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	2,358,067	238,554	₦19.6bn	₦19.6bn	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Informal	1,002,530	40,515	₦94.2bn	₦93.8bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Small	769,771	151,978	₦149bn	₦146bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	427,828	5,377	₦8.99bn	₦8.99bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential	381,387	85,666	₦273bn	₦262bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	43,499	11,322	₦3.72bn	₦3.72bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	11,336	3,411	₦27.9bn	₦27.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	10,922	2,987	₦27.8bn	₦27.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	9,838	6,008	₦192bn	₦191bn	47%	2.4 yr
School	6,174	3,313	₦3.66bn	₦3.66bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	6,012	3,693	₦4.28bn	₦4.28bn	73%	1.4 yr
Market	3,861	2,041	₦440m	₦440m	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	5,039,117	559,267	₦830bn	₦813bn
Industrial	4,162	1,740	₦24.5bn	₦24.4bn
Retail	2,458	160	₦226m	₦226m
Farmland	698	119	₦460m	₦444m
Commercial	363	237	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn
Farmyard	20	0	₦1.27m	₦1.27m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	5,005,399	544,243	₦571bn	₦556bn	17%	6.4 yr
SME High	22,977	6,613	₦57.4bn	₦56.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	18,442	10,667	₦228bn	₦226bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	2,239,623	236,916	₦18.8bn	₦18.8bn
2.0	993,843	134,906	₦125bn	₦121bn
3.0	761,419	103,648	₦389bn	₦379bn
4.0	589,117	23,514	₦235bn	₦233bn
1.0	452,379	60,268	₦40.6bn	₦39.5bn
5.0	8,950	1,785	₦22.2bn	₦22bn
6.0	1,487	486	₦25.4bn	₦24.6bn