Kano State

Rooftop solar in Rogo, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Rogo has 119,838 buildings with a viable rooftop and 859 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

119,838

Usable roof area

3.89 km²

859 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.6bn/yr

11.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Rogo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦724bn

NPV₦113bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy16.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity95.1 MWp

Capex₦104bn

Year-one energy value₦117bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.59tn

NPV₦971bn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Rogo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 95.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦104bn
Year 1 savings: ₦117bn/yr
NPV: ₦971bn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Rogo pays back quickly

Of the 117,495 buildings in Rogo with a modelled payback, 36.5% pay back inside five years and 12.6% inside three.

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How much of Rogo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Rogo consume 23.2 GWh/yr but want 39.5 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Rogo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Rogo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 117,495 buildings with a modelled result out of 119,838 in Rogo. 53,590 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,810 (13%)

Under 5 years42,905 (37%)

Under 7 years53,734 (46%)

Under 10 years68,386 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%63,143 (53%)

Above 15%53,590 (45%)

Above 20%45,436 (38%)

Above 25%38,392 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

27.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.59 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

430k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Rogo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Rogo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	40,144	6,082	₦4.61bn	₦4.6bn	11%	9.1 yr
D	36,769	4,659	₦4.73bn	₦4.65bn	9%	9.6 yr
C	33,112	3,952	₦3.98bn	₦3.98bn	13%	7.4 yr
B	9,813	37	₦306m	₦306m	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	119,114	14,181	₦10.8bn	₦10.7bn	11%	8.6 yr
Anchor	440	333	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	221	163	₦357m	₦357m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	53	44	₦19.3m	₦19.3m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	7	6	₦6.57m	₦6.57m	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	2	2	₦542k	₦542k	71%	1.4 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦76.9k	₦76.9k	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	57,314	5,673	₦500m	₦469m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	29,184	3,466	₦860m	₦860m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	24,227	3,634	₦3.38bn	₦3.33bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	8,170	1,704	₦4.27bn	₦4.25bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	877	218	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	66	35	₦2.33bn	₦2.33bn	47%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	75,432	13,830	₦11.3bn	₦11.2bn	11%	8.1 yr
Dense Urban	25,037	575	₦851m	₦851m	15%	6.9 yr
Unclassified	14,518	140	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn	7%	15.4 yr
Rural	4,851	185	₦378m	₦378m	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	62,774	6,295	₦501m	₦501m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	26,705	5,401	₦4.05bn	₦3.98bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	14,065	0	₦111m	₦111m	13%	7.1 yr
Residential	12,376	2,348	₦6bn	₦5.98bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	3,181	137	₦127m	₦127m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	237	184	₦1.94bn	₦1.93bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	175	129	₦108m	₦108m	87%	1.1 yr
School	150	110	₦66.5m	₦66.5m	85%	1.1 yr
Hospital	39	32	₦155m	₦155m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	32	25	₦358m	₦358m	59%	1.6 yr
Clinic	24	17	₦28.9m	₦28.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	19	16	₦2.42m	₦2.42m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	119,838	14,730	₦13.6bn	₦13.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	119,379	14,385	₦11bn	₦10.9bn	11%	8.6 yr
Enterprise	444	336	₦2.45bn	₦2.44bn	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	15	9	₦178m	₦178m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	62,777	6,298	₦501m	₦501m
2.0	20,517	3,877	₦3.27bn	₦3.22bn
3.0	16,520	3,230	₦8.43bn	₦8.42bn
4.0	11,935	42	₦364m	₦364m
1.0	8,087	1,281	₦927m	₦885m
5.0	2	2	₦139m	₦139m