Kano State

Rooftop solar in Takai, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Takai has 126,028 buildings with a viable rooftop and 661 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.79bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

126,028

Usable roof area

3.03 km²

661 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.79bn/yr

5.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.9 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Takai

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.79bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.67bn

Lifetime cash saved₦424bn

NPV₦61.6bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.9 yr

Unlocked energy11.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity63.1 MWp

Capex₦69.5bn

Year-one energy value₦75.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.57tn

NPV₦617bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Takai's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 63.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦69.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦617bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Takai pays back quickly

Of the 124,684 buildings in Takai with a modelled payback, 31.3% pay back inside five years and 12.6% inside three.

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How much of Takai's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Takai consume 15.6 GWh/yr but want 26.8 GWh/yr. The 42% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Takai

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Takai actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 124,684 buildings with a modelled result out of 126,028 in Takai. 57,881 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,706 (13%)

Under 5 years39,062 (31%)

Under 7 years58,090 (47%)

Under 10 years74,848 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%69,907 (55%)

Above 15%57,881 (46%)

Above 20%43,598 (35%)

Above 25%33,535 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

17.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

282k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Takai.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Takai

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	35,613	4,434	₦2.23bn	₦2.21bn	13%	7.6 yr
B	33,365	1,964	₦1.41bn	₦1.4bn	19%	5.6 yr
D	31,815	5,610	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	9%	13.6 yr
E	25,235	3,665	₦1.8bn	₦1.72bn	7%	13.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	124,725	14,531	₦6.58bn	₦6.46bn	13%	8.1 yr
Commercial General	501	437	₦355m	₦355m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	416	380	₦48.7m	₦48.7m	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	347	294	₦786m	₦786m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	24	21	₦3.96m	₦3.96m	59%	1.6 yr
Industrial	12	9	₦6.8m	₦6.8m	75%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	3	1	₦4.51m	₦4.51m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	69,647	7,803	₦732m	₦729m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	35,724	4,646	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	17,073	2,478	₦2.56bn	₦2.56bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,237	637	₦1.63bn	₦1.53bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	330	100	₦950m	₦950m	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	17	9	₦534m	₦534m	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	81,347	14,011	₦6.08bn	₦5.96bn	11%	8.4 yr
Dense Urban	26,598	1,030	₦976m	₦976m	19%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	12,578	69	₦466m	₦464m	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	5,505	563	₦267m	₦267m	9%	9.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	73,277	7,380	₦645m	₦645m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	23,330	5,190	₦3.38bn	₦3.38bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	15,925	0	₦92.6m	₦92.6m	15%	7.1 yr
Residential	9,844	1,961	₦2.41bn	₦2.29bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,338	0	₦53.3m	₦53.3m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	416	380	₦48.7m	₦48.7m	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	182	151	₦564m	₦564m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	119	96	₦76.5m	₦76.5m	83%	1.1 yr
Commercial	119	100	₦97.1m	₦97.1m	71%	1.4 yr
School	114	90	₦48.5m	₦48.5m	81%	1.4 yr
Market	108	103	₦30.8m	₦30.8m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	90	87	₦64.9m	₦64.9m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	126,028	15,673	₦7.79bn	₦7.67bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	125,458	15,182	₦6.83bn	₦6.71bn	13%	7.9 yr
Enterprise	358	303	₦793m	₦793m	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	212	188	₦167m	₦167m	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	73,287	7,389	₦646m	₦646m
2.0	19,925	4,308	₦2.65bn	₦2.65bn
4.0	12,904	12	₦153m	₦153m
3.0	11,421	2,006	₦3.41bn	₦3.3bn
1.0	8,485	1,956	₦901m	₦895m
5.0	4	2	₦17.9m	₦17.9m
6.0	2	0	₦7.87m	₦7.87m