Kano State

Rooftop solar in Dawakin Tofa, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Dawakin Tofa has 148,665 buildings with a viable rooftop and 884 MWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

148,665

Usable roof area

4.02 km²

884 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23bn/yr

19.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.4 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dawakin Tofa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.18tn

NPV₦180bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.4 yr

Unlocked energy19 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity93.7 MWp

Capex₦101bn

Year-one energy value₦103bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.89tn

NPV₦841bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dawakin Tofa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 93.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦101bn
Year 1 savings: ₦103bn/yr
NPV: ₦841bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dawakin Tofa pays back quickly

Of the 147,276 buildings in Dawakin Tofa with a modelled payback, 33.2% pay back inside five years and 13.3% inside three.

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How much of Dawakin Tofa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dawakin Tofa consume 39.9 GWh/yr but want 58.8 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dawakin Tofa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dawakin Tofa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 147,276 buildings with a modelled result out of 148,665 in Dawakin Tofa. 71,153 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years19,609 (13%)

Under 5 years48,833 (33%)

Under 7 years71,467 (49%)

Under 10 years89,623 (61%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%85,364 (57%)

Above 15%71,153 (48%)

Above 20%53,580 (36%)

Above 25%43,087 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

42 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

373k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dawakin Tofa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dawakin Tofa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	40,955	4,599	₦3.31bn	₦3.29bn	9%	9.6 yr
B	35,152	4,538	₦10.2bn	₦9.98bn	21%	5.4 yr
A	27,747	5,431	₦3.63bn	₦3.6bn	19%	5.9 yr
D	24,776	2,195	₦2.74bn	₦2.54bn	7%	15.1 yr
E	20,035	3,536	₦3.14bn	₦2.8bn	7%	14.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	145,749	18,922	₦17.6bn	₦17.1bn	13%	7.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,623	557	₦115m	₦115m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	607	346	₦2.31bn	₦2.25bn	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	397	282	₦2.94bn	₦2.68bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	264	187	₦34.8m	₦34.8m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	23	5	₦4.16m	₦4.16m	39%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦38k	₦38k	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦37.4k	₦37.4k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	89,038	10,595	₦870m	₦869m	7%	14.4 yr
30 50m2	33,963	4,643	₦1.17bn	₦1.15bn	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	18,201	2,712	₦2.97bn	₦2.91bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	6,150	1,748	₦5.34bn	₦5.28bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,210	534	₦8.3bn	₦7.81bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	103	67	₦4.41bn	₦4.19bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	82,169	10,564	₦12.7bn	₦12.1bn	9%	13.4 yr
Urban Centre	30,134	6,298	₦5.28bn	₦5.25bn	19%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	28,510	3,032	₦3.28bn	₦3.19bn	19%	5.6 yr
Unclassified	7,852	405	₦1.74bn	₦1.7bn	7%	15.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	88,201	11,665	₦771m	₦771m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	21,491	4,183	₦3.77bn	₦3.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	15,662	679	₦829m	₦829m	15%	6.4 yr
Residential	14,868	2,393	₦12.2bn	₦11.8bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,514	0	₦63m	₦63m	19%	5.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,623	557	₦115m	₦115m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	339	175	₦1.95bn	₦1.89bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	286	203	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	118	81	₦121m	₦121m	81%	1.4 yr
School	113	79	₦96.9m	₦96.9m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	90	61	₦6.1m	₦6.1m	53%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	87	63	₦5.21m	₦5.21m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	148,653	20,299	₦23bn	₦22.2bn
Commercial	12	0	₦282k	₦282k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	147,878	19,822	₦18bn	₦17.5bn	13%	7.4 yr
Enterprise	408	285	₦2.94bn	₦2.68bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	379	192	₦2.08bn	₦2.03bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	85,933	11,348	₦748m	₦748m
2.0	26,889	3,444	₦3.16bn	₦3.1bn
3.0	15,794	3,127	₦15.7bn	₦14.9bn
1.0	13,506	2,133	₦921m	₦913m
4.0	6,503	239	₦1.62bn	₦1.62bn
5.0	37	8	₦936m	₦879m
6.0	3	0	₦12.2m	₦12.2m