Kano State

Rooftop solar in Dawakin Kudu, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Dawakin Kudu has 154,341 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.09 GWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦36.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

154,341

Usable roof area

4.95 km²

1.09 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦36.7bn/yr

28.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.1 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dawakin Kudu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦36.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.95tn

NPV₦294bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.1 yr

Unlocked energy37.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity154 MWp

Capex₦159bn

Year-one energy value₦145bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.83tn

NPV₦1.16tn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dawakin Kudu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 154 MWp
Capital cost: ₦159bn
Year 1 savings: ₦145bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.16tn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dawakin Kudu pays back quickly

Of the 153,177 buildings in Dawakin Kudu with a modelled payback, 48.0% pay back inside five years and 19.1% inside three.

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How much of Dawakin Kudu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dawakin Kudu consume 74.8 GWh/yr but want 113 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dawakin Kudu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dawakin Kudu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 153,177 buildings with a modelled result out of 154,341 in Dawakin Kudu. 96,936 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years29,275 (19%)

Under 5 years73,597 (48%)

Under 7 years97,219 (63%)

Under 10 years116,957 (76%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%112,227 (73%)

Above 15%96,936 (63%)

Above 20%79,382 (51%)

Above 25%64,381 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

72 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

37.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

471k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dawakin Kudu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Dawakin Kudu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	69,123	13,444	₦23.9bn	₦23.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	28,912	3,152	₦5.74bn	₦5.38bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	20,425	3,135	₦2.9bn	₦2.6bn	11%	9.1 yr
E	18,164	2,697	₦2.48bn	₦2.42bn	9%	13.1 yr
D	17,717	2,100	₦1.7bn	₦1.46bn	9%	13.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	143,708	21,732	₦24.9bn	₦23.9bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial Retail	6,507	1,417	₦511m	₦511m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	3,463	1,064	₦5.87bn	₦5.85bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	509	236	₦5.22bn	₦5.22bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	118	65	₦23.3m	₦23.3m	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial	31	13	₦174m	₦174m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	2	1	₦3.54m	₦3.54m	39%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦197k	₦197k	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦43.1k	₦43.1k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	77,133	9,992	₦1.13bn	₦1.12bn	13%	8.1 yr
30 50m2	41,411	6,832	₦2.06bn	₦2.02bn	21%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	25,512	4,954	₦4.97bn	₦4.91bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	8,509	1,921	₦6.99bn	₦6.31bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,644	734	₦12.7bn	₦12.5bn	39%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	132	95	₦8.84bn	₦8.84bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	57,634	8,145	₦9.82bn	₦9.25bn	11%	8.9 yr
Urban Centre	46,395	11,881	₦21.6bn	₦21.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	44,486	4,228	₦3.12bn	₦2.99bn	21%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	5,826	274	₦2.14bn	₦1.88bn	11%	8.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	62,631	9,456	₦706m	₦706m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Small	29,741	7,238	₦5.73bn	₦5.66bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	23,693	0	₦365m	₦365m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	15,279	4,304	₦17.7bn	₦16.8bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	12,308	734	₦371m	₦371m	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	6,507	1,417	₦511m	₦511m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	2,164	588	₦4.75bn	₦4.73bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	512	124	₦754m	₦754m	37%	2.9 yr
Market	461	213	₦33.6m	₦33.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	309	149	₦4.95bn	₦4.95bn	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	212	99	₦149m	₦149m	49%	2.1 yr
School	197	89	₦61m	₦61m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	154,341	24,528	₦36.7bn	₦35.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	151,147	23,573	₦25.8bn	₦24.8bn	21%	5.4 yr
SME High	2,679	713	₦5.51bn	₦5.49bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	515	242	₦5.4bn	₦5.39bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	62,785	9,501	₦709m	₦709m
2.0	33,357	6,738	₦5.05bn	₦4.65bn
3.0	23,207	4,827	₦22.9bn	₦22.4bn
4.0	19,635	212	₦2.89bn	₦2.89bn
1.0	14,270	3,007	₦1.33bn	₦1.25bn
5.0	953	210	₦2.58bn	₦2.57bn
6.0	134	33	₦1.21bn	₦1.2bn