Kano State

Rooftop solar in Ungogo, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Ungogo has 394,355 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.95 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦33.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

394,355

Usable roof area

13.4 km²

2.95 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦33.9bn/yr

24.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ungogo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦33.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.93tn

NPV₦264bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy48.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity186 MWp

Capex₦201bn

Year-one energy value₦150bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.1tn

NPV₦1.16tn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ungogo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 186 MWp
Capital cost: ₦201bn
Year 1 savings: ₦150bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.16tn
Median IRR: 73%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ungogo pays back quickly

Of the 383,728 buildings in Ungogo with a modelled payback, 38.1% pay back inside five years and 7.5% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Ungogo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ungogo consume 89 GWh/yr but want 137 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Ungogo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ungogo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 383,728 buildings with a modelled result out of 394,355 in Ungogo. 240,370 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years28,757 (7%)

Under 5 years146,268 (38%)

Under 7 years241,777 (63%)

Under 10 years321,724 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%310,783 (79%)

Above 15%240,370 (61%)

Above 20%167,609 (43%)

Above 25%112,984 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

75 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

48.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

576k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ungogo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ungogo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	323,159	22,267	₦27bn	₦26.8bn	19%	5.6 yr
B	51,453	7,099	₦5.47bn	₦5.47bn	17%	6.1 yr
C	9,294	152	₦747m	₦747m	7%	14.6 yr
D	6,811	86	₦453m	₦453m	7%	14.9 yr
E	3,638	167	₦226m	₦226m	7%	14.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	391,276	29,074	₦19.3bn	₦19.1bn	17%	5.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,358	260	₦89.1m	₦89.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,025	254	₦1.64bn	₦1.62bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	502	154	₦12.4bn	₦12.4bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	120	10	₦8.17m	₦8.17m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	49	16	₦404m	₦384m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	15	2	₦77.4m	₦77.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	5	1	₦593k	₦593k	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	4	0	₦654k	₦654k	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦62.4k	₦62.4k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	186,320	12,224	₦1.39bn	₦1.38bn	13%	7.6 yr
30 50m2	97,487	6,966	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	19%	5.6 yr
50 100m2	79,371	6,529	₦3.86bn	₦3.85bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	27,682	3,111	₦6.21bn	₦6.21bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,273	821	₦7.26bn	₦7.06bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	222	120	₦13.7bn	₦13.7bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	347,846	27,725	₦26.4bn	₦26.2bn	19%	5.6 yr
Urban	23,395	1,337	₦2.58bn	₦2.58bn	13%	8.1 yr
Dense Urban	15,645	208	₦277m	₦277m	9%	9.6 yr
Unclassified	7,469	501	₦4.64bn	₦4.64bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	145,014	13,804	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	102,950	2,739	₦5.68bn	₦5.68bn	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	96,676	2,489	₦2.06bn	₦2.06bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Small	33,813	6,944	₦2.8bn	₦2.79bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	12,433	3,076	₦7.48bn	₦7.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,360	260	₦87.3m	₦87.3m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	490	128	₦636m	₦636m	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	294	19	₦31.9m	₦31.9m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	206	75	₦7.78bn	₦7.78bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	198	39	₦284m	₦266m	37%	2.9 yr
School	173	22	₦87.1m	₦87.1m	45%	2.4 yr
Place Of Worship	109	6	₦6.18m	₦6.18m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	394,180	29,630	₦33.9bn	₦33.7bn
Commercial	126	126	₦20.3m	₦20.3m
Farmland	43	14	₦21.8m	₦21.8m
Farmyard	5	0	₦217k	₦217k
Industrial	1	1	₦401k	₦401k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	393,133	29,444	₦20.4bn	₦20.2bn	17%	5.9 yr
SME High	704	165	₦749m	₦749m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	518	162	₦12.8bn	₦12.8bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	108,115	13,677	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn
4.0	107,723	3,350	₦12.7bn	₦12.7bn
3.0	73,379	6,067	₦16.5bn	₦16.3bn
2.0	58,826	5,257	₦2.16bn	₦2.15bn
1.0	46,033	1,389	₦467m	₦465m
5.0	252	26	₦470m	₦451m
6.0	27	5	₦534m	₦513m