Kano State

Rooftop solar in Dambatta, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Dambatta has 123,586 buildings with a viable rooftop and 658 MWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

123,586

Usable roof area

3 km²

658 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.3bn/yr

10.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dambatta

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦712bn

NPV₦107bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy16.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity83.9 MWp

Capex₦90.7bn

Year-one energy value₦100bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.72tn

NPV₦821bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Dambatta's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 83.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦90.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦100bn/yr
NPV: ₦821bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dambatta pays back quickly

Of the 123,363 buildings in Dambatta with a modelled payback, 36.4% pay back inside five years and 17.7% inside three.

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How much of Dambatta's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dambatta consume 25.8 GWh/yr but want 42 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dambatta

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dambatta actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 123,363 buildings with a modelled result out of 123,586 in Dambatta. 55,006 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,800 (18%)

Under 5 years44,861 (36%)

Under 7 years55,159 (45%)

Under 10 years67,344 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%62,964 (51%)

Above 15%55,006 (45%)

Above 20%47,372 (38%)

Above 25%40,271 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

27.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.87 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

397k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dambatta.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dambatta

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	38,681	7,073	₦4.25bn	₦4.12bn	9%	13.6 yr
E	36,927	6,317	₦2.41bn	₦2.39bn	7%	13.9 yr
C	21,342	1,772	₦1.89bn	₦1.79bn	7%	14.1 yr
B	14,866	4,950	₦3.65bn	₦3.64bn	31%	3.4 yr
A	11,770	1,397	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	121,573	20,078	₦10.3bn	₦10bn	11%	9.4 yr
Commercial General	706	484	₦2bn	₦2bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	697	447	₦193m	₦193m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	396	311	₦811m	₦802m	69%	1.4 yr
Worship	127	108	₦22.8m	₦22.8m	63%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	56	55	₦9.76m	₦9.76m	69%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	14	12	₦6.33m	₦6.33m	69%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	11	10	₦5.39m	₦5.39m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	6	4	₦2.17m	₦2.17m	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	72,399	10,425	₦812m	₦811m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	30,397	5,809	₦1.48bn	₦1.47bn	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	15,881	3,687	₦3.89bn	₦3.83bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	4,439	1,388	₦3.91bn	₦3.75bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	460	197	₦3.04bn	₦3.03bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	10	3	₦202m	₦202m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	67,299	10,114	₦5.24bn	₦5.22bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban Centre	28,093	6,888	₦4.81bn	₦4.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	13,199	3,812	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	11%	8.9 yr
Unclassified	11,075	263	₦1.41bn	₦1.2bn	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	3,920	432	₦412m	₦412m	11%	8.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	74,605	10,720	₦692m	₦692m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	19,880	5,269	₦4.45bn	₦4.38bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	11,928	3,775	₦4.72bn	₦4.56bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	8,137	0	₦97.4m	₦97.4m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	7,017	314	₦323m	₦323m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	746	495	₦199m	₦199m	47%	2.1 yr
Commercial	451	283	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	53%	2.1 yr
Institutional	213	167	₦304m	₦304m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	145	114	₦113m	₦113m	87%	1.1 yr
School	133	101	₦48.2m	₦48.2m	83%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	64	57	₦6.12m	₦6.12m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	56	54	₦80.9m	₦80.9m	43%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	123,586	21,509	₦13.3bn	₦13.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	122,667	20,848	₦10.7bn	₦10.5bn	11%	9.1 yr
SME High	519	348	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	53%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	400	313	₦812m	₦803m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	74,664	10,774	₦697m	₦697m
2.0	21,469	5,480	₦3.94bn	₦3.88bn
3.0	10,147	2,412	₦4.89bn	₦4.79bn
1.0	9,658	2,411	₦1.43bn	₦1.36bn
4.0	7,197	133	₦614m	₦605m
5.0	413	268	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn
6.0	38	31	₦659m	₦659m