Kano State

Rooftop solar in Kumbotso, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Kumbotso has 351,455 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.81 GWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦80.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

351,455

Usable roof area

17.1 km²

3.81 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦80.3bn/yr

50.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kumbotso

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦80.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦79.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.63tn

NPV₦632bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy112 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity388 MWp

Capex₦399bn

Year-one energy value₦248bn

Lifetime energy value₦11.7tn

NPV₦1.85tn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Kumbotso's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 388 MWp
Capital cost: ₦399bn
Year 1 savings: ₦248bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.85tn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kumbotso pays back quickly

Of the 347,938 buildings in Kumbotso with a modelled payback, 61.4% pay back inside five years and 7.5% inside three.

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How much of Kumbotso's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kumbotso consume 231 GWh/yr but want 343 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kumbotso

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kumbotso actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 347,938 buildings with a modelled result out of 351,455 in Kumbotso. 290,096 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years26,103 (8%)

Under 5 years213,480 (61%)

Under 7 years290,776 (84%)

Under 10 years325,223 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%321,038 (91%)

Above 15%290,096 (83%)

Above 20%234,767 (67%)

Above 25%174,715 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

180 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

112 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

789k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kumbotso.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kumbotso

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	337,141	23,341	₦76.1bn	₦75.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	10,042	1,818	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn	19%	5.4 yr
C	3,854	240	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	9%	9.9 yr
E	385	0	₦9.77m	₦9.77m	7%	14.1 yr
D	33	0	₦1.47m	₦1.47m	7%	14.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	345,952	24,315	₦36.2bn	₦35.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,306	447	₦4.34bn	₦4.32bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,135	423	₦168m	₦168m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	755	177	₦39.4bn	₦39.3bn	47%	2.4 yr
Industrial	143	17	₦129m	₦129m	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	119	20	₦18.4m	₦18.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	18	0	₦13.7m	₦13.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	13	0	₦4.82m	₦4.82m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	7	0	₦4.5m	₦4.5m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	4	0	₦667k	₦667k	35%	2.9 yr
Automotive	3	0	₦888k	₦888k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	121,349	8,961	₦1.43bn	₦1.41bn	17%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	91,450	5,609	₦5.88bn	₦5.82bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	85,206	5,356	₦2.11bn	₦1.97bn	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	46,849	3,977	₦12.6bn	₦12.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	6,185	1,288	₦15.5bn	₦15.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	416	208	₦42.7bn	₦42.7bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	341,246	24,189	₦72.2bn	₦71.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	8,561	735	₦7.91bn	₦7.74bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	1,636	466	₦132m	₦132m	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	12	9	₦1.09m	₦1.09m	43%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	125,622	1,646	₦6.93bn	₦6.92bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	100,416	938	₦2.93bn	₦2.93bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	75,368	10,284	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	31,262	7,360	₦4.82bn	₦4.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	12,353	4,083	₦20.4bn	₦19.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,136	423	₦168m	₦168m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	822	252	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial	819	119	₦2.17bn	₦2.16bn	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	540	4	₦32.1m	₦32.1m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	469	138	₦38.9bn	₦38.8bn	33%	3.1 yr
Duplex	391	0	₦19.1m	₦19.1m	31%	3.6 yr
Unknown	331	32	₦371m	₦367m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	351,218	25,347	₦80.1bn	₦79.1bn
Farmland	162	22	₦98.8m	₦98.8m
Commercial	49	30	₦76.4m	₦76.4m
Farmyard	14	0	₦386k	₦386k
Industrial	12	0	₦1.03m	₦1.03m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	349,013	24,851	₦37.2bn	₦36.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,672	371	₦3.68bn	₦3.67bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	770	177	₦39.4bn	₦39.4bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	123,082	2,020	₦42.9bn	₦42.8bn
3.0	86,682	7,758	₦29.8bn	₦29.1bn
0.0	59,013	10,025	₦956m	₦956m
2.0	58,140	4,189	₦3.27bn	₦3.1bn
1.0	23,702	1,232	₦573m	₦560m
5.0	665	121	₦998m	₦998m
6.0	171	54	₦1.85bn	₦1.83bn