Kano State

Rooftop solar in Tudun Wada, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Tudun Wada has 135,567 buildings with a viable rooftop and 801 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

135,567

Usable roof area

3.65 km²

801 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.4bn/yr

12.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tudun Wada

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦787bn

NPV₦120bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy17.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity108 MWp

Capex₦117bn

Year-one energy value₦134bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.31tn

NPV₦1.1tn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Tudun Wada's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 108 MWp
Capital cost: ₦117bn
Year 1 savings: ₦134bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.1tn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tudun Wada pays back quickly

Of the 134,528 buildings in Tudun Wada with a modelled payback, 32.8% pay back inside five years and 11.6% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Tudun Wada's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tudun Wada consume 27.5 GWh/yr but want 44.8 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Tudun Wada

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tudun Wada actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 134,528 buildings with a modelled result out of 135,567 in Tudun Wada. 57,772 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,641 (12%)

Under 5 years44,191 (33%)

Under 7 years57,946 (43%)

Under 10 years78,569 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%71,062 (52%)

Above 15%57,772 (43%)

Above 20%47,481 (35%)

Above 25%38,528 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

30.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

540k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tudun Wada.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tudun Wada

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	47,584	4,007	₦4.55bn	₦4.26bn	9%	9.9 yr
D	36,854	5,092	₦4.34bn	₦4.22bn	9%	13.1 yr
C	30,872	4,737	₦5bn	₦4.72bn	13%	7.4 yr
B	20,257	1,703	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	134,569	14,738	₦13.1bn	₦12.6bn	11%	9.1 yr
Anchor	386	306	₦1.67bn	₦1.52bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	281	209	₦504m	₦504m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	112	80	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	96	96	₦25.8m	₦25.8m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	80	76	₦14.2m	₦14.2m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	15	13	₦7.62m	₦7.62m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	15	9	₦10.8m	₦10.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	12	12	₦6.49m	₦6.49m	71%	1.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦146k	₦146k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	71,749	7,130	₦735m	₦719m	7%	14.6 yr
30 50m2	37,331	4,323	₦1.49bn	₦1.45bn	13%	8.1 yr
50 100m2	19,927	2,702	₦3.68bn	₦3.59bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	5,879	1,201	₦4.35bn	₦4.3bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	647	165	₦3.51bn	₦3.17bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	34	18	₦1.62bn	₦1.47bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	77,437	11,983	₦8.94bn	₦8.75bn	11%	8.9 yr
Dense Urban	23,662	2,816	₦3.32bn	₦3.18bn	19%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	23,133	604	₦2.71bn	₦2.36bn	7%	15.4 yr
Rural	11,335	136	₦404m	₦397m	9%	13.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	72,668	6,879	₦544m	₦544m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Small	25,723	4,416	₦4.74bn	₦4.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	17,047	3,443	₦7.63bn	₦7.22bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	15,619	0	₦187m	₦187m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	3,477	0	₦20.6m	₦20.6m	11%	8.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	196	164	₦44.2m	₦44.2m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	187	148	₦853m	₦853m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	151	118	₦135m	₦135m	85%	1.1 yr
School	125	93	₦42.8m	₦42.8m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	66	48	₦283m	₦283m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	60	56	₦7.69m	₦7.69m	69%	1.6 yr
Clinic	39	31	₦399m	₦252m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	135,293	15,539	₦15.4bn	₦14.7bn
Retail	274	0	₦2.4m	₦2.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	135,071	15,147	₦13.4bn	₦12.8bn	11%	9.1 yr
Enterprise	388	306	₦1.67bn	₦1.52bn	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	108	86	₦360m	₦360m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	72,001	6,949	₦552m	₦552m
2.0	24,320	4,142	₦4.02bn	₦3.91bn
3.0	14,769	2,470	₦9.02bn	₦8.44bn
4.0	13,434	21	₦410m	₦410m
1.0	11,039	1,954	₦1.31bn	₦1.3bn
5.0	4	3	₦69.1m	₦69.1m