Kano State

Rooftop solar in Minjibir, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Minjibir has 124,636 buildings with a viable rooftop and 558 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.63bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

124,636

Usable roof area

2.55 km²

558 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.63bn/yr

6.25 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Minjibir

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.63bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.16bn

Lifetime cash saved₦450bn

NPV₦64.9bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy10.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity66.9 MWp

Capex₦73.3bn

Year-one energy value₦82.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.87tn

NPV₦674bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Minjibir's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 66.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦73.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦82.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦674bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Minjibir pays back quickly

Of the 123,600 buildings in Minjibir with a modelled payback, 22.7% pay back inside five years and 6.5% inside three.

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How much of Minjibir's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Minjibir consume 17.1 GWh/yr but want 27.4 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Minjibir

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Minjibir actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 123,600 buildings with a modelled result out of 124,636 in Minjibir. 40,205 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,035 (7%)

Under 5 years28,117 (23%)

Under 7 years40,367 (33%)

Under 10 years54,375 (44%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,740 (40%)

Above 15%40,205 (32%)

Above 20%30,843 (25%)

Above 25%23,765 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

17.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.61 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

358k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Minjibir.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Minjibir

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	41,163	3,399	₦2.56bn	₦2.21bn	7%	14.9 yr
C	35,724	759	₦1.52bn	₦1.47bn	7%	13.9 yr
E	31,597	1,467	₦1.09bn	₦1.01bn	7%	14.9 yr
B	13,944	1,931	₦3.29bn	₦3.28bn	21%	5.1 yr
A	2,208	364	₦181m	₦181m	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	122,385	5,981	₦7.46bn	₦6.99bn	7%	13.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,272	1,218	₦130m	₦130m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	559	444	₦523m	₦523m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	388	260	₦513m	₦513m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	23	12	₦2.1m	₦2.1m	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial	8	5	₦1.95m	₦1.95m	49%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦35.6k	₦35.6k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	82,209	4,183	₦560m	₦508m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	27,837	1,868	₦729m	₦696m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	11,466	1,192	₦1.79bn	₦1.76bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	2,788	516	₦2.57bn	₦2.22bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	328	156	₦2.57bn	₦2.56bn	33%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	8	5	₦412m	₦412m	51%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	91,042	4,078	₦4.86bn	₦4.43bn	7%	14.9 yr
Dense Urban	27,488	3,756	₦3.29bn	₦3.28bn	21%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	6,106	86	₦478m	₦447m	5%	15.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	75,412	3,650	₦351m	₦351m	7%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	21,945	1,064	₦2.11bn	₦2.08bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	15,211	922	₦4.78bn	₦4.34bn	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Formal	5,439	0	₦35.3m	₦35.3m	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	4,372	345	₦175m	₦175m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,273	1,218	₦130m	₦130m	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	208	139	₦428m	₦428m	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	162	107	₦77.4m	₦77.4m	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	154	154	₦240m	₦240m	45%	2.4 yr
School	145	96	₦45.9m	₦45.9m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial	108	73	₦92.7m	₦92.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Market	79	74	₦11m	₦11m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	124,625	7,920	₦8.63bn	₦8.16bn
Farmland	11	0	₦63.7k	₦63.7k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	123,983	7,431	₦7.78bn	₦7.31bn	7%	13.9 yr
Enterprise	391	264	₦515m	₦515m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	262	225	₦330m	₦330m	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	75,425	3,660	₦352m	₦352m
2.0	22,616	1,601	₦1.84bn	₦1.79bn
1.0	12,247	1,288	₦788m	₦714m
3.0	9,663	1,164	₦5.23bn	₦4.89bn
4.0	4,609	154	₦296m	₦296m
5.0	74	52	₦115m	₦115m
6.0	2	1	₦3.97m	₦3.97m