Kano State

Rooftop solar in Gwale, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Gwale has 171,663 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.12 GWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦66.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

171,663

Usable roof area

9.49 km²

2.12 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦66.5bn/yr

28.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gwale

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦66.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦65.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.07tn

NPV₦538bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy119 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity345 MWp

Capex₦350bn

Year-one energy value₦201bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.46tn

NPV₦1.46tn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Gwale's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 345 MWp
Capital cost: ₦350bn
Year 1 savings: ₦201bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.46tn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gwale pays back quickly

Of the 171,226 buildings in Gwale with a modelled payback, 76.2% pay back inside five years and 8.3% inside three.

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How much of Gwale's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gwale consume 215 GWh/yr but want 334 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gwale

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gwale actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 171,226 buildings with a modelled result out of 171,663 in Gwale. 156,717 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,196 (8%)

Under 5 years130,456 (76%)

Under 7 years156,930 (92%)

Under 10 years167,560 (98%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%166,486 (97%)

Above 15%156,717 (91%)

Above 20%138,663 (81%)

Above 25%111,597 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

169 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

119 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

675k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gwale.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Gwale

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	171,663	15,981	₦66.5bn	₦65.9bn	29%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	167,782	15,395	₦42.7bn	₦42bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	1,747	237	₦2.51bn	₦2.51bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	933	134	₦65.7m	₦65.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	824	151	₦16.9bn	₦16.9bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	196	14	₦27.1m	₦27.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	117	32	₦4.21bn	₦4.21bn	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	27	6	₦71.3m	₦64.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	19	4	₦20.5m	₦20.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	9	5	₦18.4m	₦18.4m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	7	1	₦2.79m	₦2.79m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	2	2	₦1.83m	₦1.83m	35%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	62,388	5,014	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	21%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	41,658	3,167	₦4.02bn	₦4.02bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	36,510	2,437	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	25,897	3,905	₦15bn	₦14.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,846	1,301	₦19.4bn	₦18.9bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	364	157	₦25.4bn	₦25.3bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	169,869	15,678	₦61.1bn	₦60.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	1,794	303	₦5.47bn	₦5.44bn	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	132,666	11,026	₦34.5bn	₦34.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
Shed	26,021	3,042	₦403m	₦403m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Small	7,618	928	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	1,475	399	₦6.67bn	₦6.03bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	934	137	₦81.8m	₦81.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	738	83	₦984m	₦984m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	398	82	₦16bn	₦16bn	33%	3.4 yr
School	299	39	₦107m	₦107m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial	250	76	₦500m	₦500m	37%	2.9 yr
Market	220	0	₦8.57m	₦8.57m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	219	37	₦183m	₦183m	47%	2.4 yr
Unknown	206	33	₦339m	₦339m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	169,136	14,798	₦48.8bn	₦48.2bn
Industrial	2,525	1,183	₦17.7bn	₦17.7bn
Farmland	1	0	₦29.9k	₦29.9k
Farmyard	1	0	₦663k	₦663k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	169,723	15,628	₦43.9bn	₦43.2bn	29%	3.6 yr
SME High	1,037	171	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	903	182	₦21.1bn	₦21.1bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	54,247	4,073	₦13.6bn	₦12.9bn
2.0	50,667	3,259	₦2.38bn	₦2.38bn
4.0	34,206	4,992	₦44.8bn	₦44.8bn
1.0	16,711	1,526	₦301m	₦301m
0.0	15,411	2,036	₦248m	₦248m
5.0	325	51	₦759m	₦752m
6.0	96	44	₦4.41bn	₦4.41bn