Kano State

Rooftop solar in Bichi, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Bichi has 159,708 buildings with a viable rooftop and 861 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

159,708

Usable roof area

3.93 km²

861 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14bn/yr

9.55 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.1 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bichi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦782bn

NPV₦111bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback8.1 yr

Unlocked energy19 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity105 MWp

Capex₦114bn

Year-one energy value₦121bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.7tn

NPV₦985bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bichi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 105 MWp
Capital cost: ₦114bn
Year 1 savings: ₦121bn/yr
NPV: ₦985bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bichi pays back quickly

Of the 158,534 buildings in Bichi with a modelled payback, 30.8% pay back inside five years and 8.4% inside three.

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How much of Bichi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bichi consume 31.3 GWh/yr but want 50.3 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bichi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bichi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 158,534 buildings with a modelled result out of 159,708 in Bichi. 72,379 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,252 (8%)

Under 5 years48,816 (31%)

Under 7 years72,702 (46%)

Under 10 years91,434 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%86,304 (54%)

Above 15%72,379 (45%)

Above 20%54,066 (34%)

Above 25%42,010 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

30.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.62 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

504k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bichi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bichi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	53,514	1,850	₦2.92bn	₦2.91bn	9%	9.6 yr
E	27,504	2,491	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	7%	14.9 yr
D	27,298	1,467	₦2.18bn	₦2.06bn	7%	15.1 yr
B	26,658	3,197	₦4.41bn	₦4.41bn	21%	5.1 yr
A	24,734	4,086	₦2.7bn	₦2.7bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	157,285	11,841	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn	11%	8.4 yr
Commercial General	1,184	715	₦455m	₦455m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	646	149	₦45.2m	₦45.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	543	366	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	46	17	₦35.5m	₦35m	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	3	3	₦525k	₦525k	69%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦216k	₦216k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	94,308	5,722	₦679m	₦677m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	38,934	3,423	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	17%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	20,223	2,522	₦3.55bn	₦3.48bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	5,481	1,155	₦3.46bn	₦3.41bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	713	237	₦2.68bn	₦2.68bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	49	32	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	96,698	6,460	₦6.99bn	₦6.89bn	9%	9.9 yr
Urban Centre	24,810	5,432	₦4.3bn	₦4.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	19,643	469	₦1.83bn	₦1.8bn	5%	15.9 yr
Dense Urban	17,026	714	₦851m	₦850m	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	1,531	16	₦32.9m	₦32.9m	7%	14.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	98,458	6,278	₦624m	₦624m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	26,882	3,439	₦4.32bn	₦4.25bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	16,507	1,878	₦6.27bn	₦6.22bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	12,701	246	₦325m	₦325m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,735	0	₦41.7m	₦41.7m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	646	149	₦45.2m	₦45.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Market	481	451	₦43.3m	₦43.3m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	280	88	₦174m	₦174m	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	272	181	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	198	131	₦109m	₦109m	63%	1.6 yr
School	177	113	₦70.2m	₦70.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	158	3	₦35.7m	₦35.7m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	159,708	13,091	₦14bn	₦13.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	158,719	12,632	₦11.9bn	₦11.8bn	11%	8.1 yr
Enterprise	551	368	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	438	91	₦210m	₦210m	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	97,786	6,279	₦622m	₦622m
2.0	29,174	3,039	₦3.26bn	₦3.24bn
3.0	15,363	2,536	₦8.57bn	₦8.52bn
1.0	12,663	1,132	₦1.11bn	₦1.05bn
4.0	4,703	105	₦384m	₦384m
5.0	19	0	₦60.6m	₦60.6m