Kano State

Rooftop solar in Gezawa, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Gezawa has 172,186 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.36 GWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦63.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

172,186

Usable roof area

6.14 km²

1.36 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦63.3bn/yr

52 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gezawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦63.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦62.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.58tn

NPV₦495bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy70.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity247 MWp

Capex₦248bn

Year-one energy value₦160bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.54tn

NPV₦1.2tn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gezawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 247 MWp
Capital cost: ₦248bn
Year 1 savings: ₦160bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.2tn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gezawa pays back quickly

Of the 170,160 buildings in Gezawa with a modelled payback, 35.5% pay back inside five years and 8.9% inside three.

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How much of Gezawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gezawa consume 175 GWh/yr but want 245 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gezawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gezawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 170,160 buildings with a modelled result out of 172,186 in Gezawa. 96,031 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,191 (9%)

Under 5 years60,395 (35%)

Under 7 years96,461 (57%)

Under 10 years118,894 (70%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%115,133 (67%)

Above 15%96,031 (56%)

Above 20%68,963 (40%)

Above 25%48,543 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

128 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

70.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

302k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gezawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Gezawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	78,106	10,968	₦57bn	₦56.7bn	21%	4.9 yr
B	28,832	2,184	₦3.85bn	₦3.78bn	19%	5.4 yr
C	23,006	738	₦1.7bn	₦1.66bn	7%	14.4 yr
D	22,156	554	₦454m	₦454m	7%	15.4 yr
E	20,086	395	₦309m	₦309m	5%	16.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	166,226	12,227	₦10.8bn	₦10.5bn	17%	6.4 yr
Commercial Retail	2,912	880	₦297m	₦297m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	2,354	1,369	₦4.27bn	₦4.27bn	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	594	321	₦47.8bn	₦47.8bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	67	32	₦7.06m	₦7.06m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	32	9	₦80.7m	₦80.7m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦3.5m	₦3.5m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	92,221	6,149	₦780m	₦779m	9%	9.4 yr
30 50m2	42,832	3,765	₦980m	₦980m	19%	5.6 yr
50 100m2	26,600	2,767	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	8,719	1,441	₦3.37bn	₦3.32bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,461	514	₦6.05bn	₦5.76bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	353	203	₦50.2bn	₦50.2bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	74,553	10,823	₦46.6bn	₦46.4bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	65,458	1,905	₦2.43bn	₦2.33bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	24,191	1,750	₦3.47bn	₦3.47bn	19%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	7,984	361	₦10.8bn	₦10.8bn	11%	8.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	89,624	5,479	₦623m	₦623m	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Small	32,722	3,616	₦2.02bn	₦2.01bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	19,426	278	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential	16,210	2,850	₦6.86bn	₦6.57bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	8,190	4	₦116m	₦116m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,912	880	₦297m	₦297m	37%	2.9 yr
Market	1,146	788	₦174m	₦174m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	904	433	₦3.58bn	₦3.58bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	399	225	₦46.4bn	₦46.4bn	39%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	174	93	₦117m	₦117m	51%	1.9 yr
School	160	81	₦54.4m	₦54.4m	49%	2.1 yr
Unknown	61	24	₦343m	₦343m	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	172,157	14,839	₦63.3bn	₦62.9bn
Farmland	29	0	₦18.6m	₦18.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	170,654	14,064	₦11.8bn	₦11.5bn	17%	6.1 yr
SME High	929	449	₦3.59bn	₦3.59bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	603	326	₦47.9bn	₦47.8bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	89,626	5,482	₦623m	₦623m
2.0	34,902	3,727	₦1.91bn	₦1.86bn
3.0	22,542	3,119	₦27.6bn	₦27.2bn
1.0	14,242	2,191	₦691m	₦690m
4.0	10,798	281	₦30.9bn	₦30.9bn
5.0	60	34	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn
6.0	16	5	₦291m	₦291m