Kano State

Rooftop solar in Nassarawa, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Nassarawa has 228,602 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.74 GWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦49.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

228,602

Usable roof area

12.3 km²

2.74 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦49.4bn/yr

18.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Nassarawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦49.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦48.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.11tn

NPV₦383bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy107 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity328 MWp

Capex₦316bn

Year-one energy value₦148bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.91tn

NPV₦1.01tn

Median IRR59%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Nassarawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 328 MWp
Capital cost: ₦316bn
Year 1 savings: ₦148bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.01tn
Median IRR: 59%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Nassarawa pays back quickly

Of the 224,383 buildings in Nassarawa with a modelled payback, 41.5% pay back inside five years and 2.7% inside three.

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How much of Nassarawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Nassarawa consume 190 GWh/yr but want 297 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Nassarawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Nassarawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 224,383 buildings with a modelled result out of 228,602 in Nassarawa. 152,960 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,970 (3%)

Under 5 years93,188 (42%)

Under 7 years153,169 (68%)

Under 10 years195,848 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%190,510 (83%)

Above 15%152,960 (67%)

Above 20%108,411 (47%)

Above 25%67,455 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

135 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.29 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

107 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

292k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Nassarawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Nassarawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	228,602	10,051	₦49.4bn	₦48.9bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	223,069	8,774	₦10.9bn	₦10.7bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial General	2,600	663	₦10bn	₦9.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,343	392	₦255m	₦255m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,078	143	₦26.7bn	₦26.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	168	24	₦888m	₦876m	35%	2.9 yr
Industrial	150	26	₦329m	₦329m	31%	3.4 yr
Worship	97	15	₦46.1m	₦46.1m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	43	5	₦149m	₦149m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	26	7	₦38.8m	₦38.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	22	2	₦20.8m	₦20.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	6	0	₦2.3m	₦2.3m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	85,948	2,916	₦668m	₦666m	13%	7.9 yr
30 50m2	55,951	1,684	₦926m	₦773m	19%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	51,478	2,018	₦1.59bn	₦1.56bn	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	27,597	2,125	₦5.22bn	₦5.21bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	7,025	1,109	₦10.4bn	₦10.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	603	199	₦30.6bn	₦30.3bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	225,819	9,786	₦42bn	₦41.7bn	19%	5.6 yr
Unclassified	2,783	265	₦7.38bn	₦7.14bn	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	173,950	6,935	₦9.77bn	₦9.73bn	19%	5.6 yr
Shed	38,355	1,162	₦343m	₦343m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	6,679	0	₦104m	₦104m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	2,797	509	₦280m	₦128m	27%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,338	389	₦231m	₦231m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential	1,261	168	₦452m	₦442m	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial	784	335	₦4.26bn	₦4.09bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	745	214	₦3.3bn	₦3.24bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	642	106	₦26.2bn	₦26.2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	426	47	₦1.09bn	₦1.03bn	31%	3.4 yr
School	332	21	₦152m	₦152m	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	290	18	₦137m	₦137m	45%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	228,372	9,940	₦48.8bn	₦48.2bn
Industrial	224	106	₦642m	₦642m
Commercial	5	5	₦475k	₦475k
Farmland	1	0	₦6.63k	₦6.63k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	225,736	9,308	₦14.5bn	₦14.2bn	19%	5.6 yr
SME High	1,675	575	₦7.94bn	₦7.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,191	168	₦27bn	₦27bn	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	65,414	2,472	₦3.43bn	₦3.26bn
2.0	64,690	2,436	₦966m	₦931m
4.0	51,006	3,081	₦37.3bn	₦37.2bn
1.0	28,551	814	₦255m	₦255m
0.0	17,934	773	₦175m	₦175m
5.0	774	367	₦2.72bn	₦2.7bn
6.0	233	108	₦4.55bn	₦4.34bn