Kano State

Rooftop solar in Sumaila, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Sumaila has 161,651 buildings with a viable rooftop and 789 MWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

161,651

Usable roof area

3.61 km²

789 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.4bn/yr

14.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sumaila

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦984bn

NPV₦150bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy20 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity110 MWp

Capex₦121bn

Year-one energy value₦136bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.41tn

NPV₦1.12tn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Sumaila's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 110 MWp
Capital cost: ₦121bn
Year 1 savings: ₦136bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.12tn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sumaila pays back quickly

Of the 160,990 buildings in Sumaila with a modelled payback, 31.2% pay back inside five years and 15.6% inside three.

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How much of Sumaila's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sumaila consume 31.6 GWh/yr but want 51.6 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Sumaila

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sumaila actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 160,990 buildings with a modelled result out of 161,651 in Sumaila. 62,745 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years25,144 (16%)

Under 5 years50,209 (31%)

Under 7 years62,888 (39%)

Under 10 years81,746 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%74,854 (46%)

Above 15%62,745 (39%)

Above 20%53,195 (33%)

Above 25%45,936 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

37.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.03 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

565k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sumaila.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sumaila

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	54,371	9,137	₦4.97bn	₦4.96bn	7%	14.1 yr
C	49,624	5,352	₦5.08bn	₦4.98bn	9%	9.4 yr
E	40,536	6,763	₦2.62bn	₦2.62bn	7%	13.9 yr
B	11,582	3,329	₦5.37bn	₦5.37bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	5,538	556	₦324m	₦324m	13%	7.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	160,708	24,331	₦16.4bn	₦16.3bn	9%	9.9 yr
Anchor	330	277	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	194	155	₦285m	₦285m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	169	155	₦37.1m	₦37.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	147	129	₦33.7m	₦33.7m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	58	54	₦9.19m	₦9.19m	69%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	24	20	₦15.3m	₦15.3m	71%	1.4 yr
Industrial	12	7	₦5.37m	₦5.37m	51%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	9	9	₦6.14m	₦6.14m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	98,875	12,373	₦1.05bn	₦1.04bn	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	39,702	7,477	₦2.17bn	₦2.16bn	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	18,847	3,929	₦4.8bn	₦4.77bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,699	1,121	₦4.59bn	₦4.59bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	488	218	₦3.83bn	₦3.78bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	40	19	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	108,493	21,459	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn	9%	9.6 yr
Unclassified	27,924	288	₦1.9bn	₦1.87bn	5%	18.1 yr
Dense Urban	21,996	3,351	₦4.58bn	₦4.58bn	19%	5.4 yr
Rural	3,238	39	₦310m	₦310m	5%	15.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	104,308	13,018	₦855m	₦855m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	30,202	7,818	₦6.52bn	₦6.49bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	12,108	3,495	₦8.83bn	₦8.76bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	10,452	0	₦97.7m	₦97.7m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Informal	3,630	0	₦68.1m	₦68.1m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	190	161	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	175	158	₦32.6m	₦32.6m	69%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	97	78	₦70m	₦70m	87%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	88	81	₦11.1m	₦11.1m	67%	1.6 yr
School	86	71	₦42.6m	₦42.6m	83%	1.1 yr
Commercial	66	52	₦156m	₦156m	65%	1.6 yr
Clinic	56	46	₦75m	₦75m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	161,196	25,131	₦18.4bn	₦18.3bn
Retail	444	0	₦2.98m	₦2.98m
Farmland	9	6	₦1.15m	₦1.15m
Commercial	2	0	₦4.17k	₦4.17k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	161,256	24,814	₦16.6bn	₦16.5bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	322	269	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	73	54	₦212m	₦212m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	104,340	13,078	₦862m	₦862m
2.0	24,299	5,969	₦4.58bn	₦4.57bn
3.0	13,575	3,391	₦10.7bn	₦10.6bn
1.0	11,063	2,687	₦1.99bn	₦1.95bn
4.0	8,371	11	₦188m	₦188m
5.0	3	1	₦66m	₦66m