Kano State

Rooftop solar in Doguwa, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Doguwa has 82,902 buildings with a viable rooftop and 614 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.87bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

82,902

Usable roof area

2.78 km²

614 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.87bn/yr

5.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.6 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Doguwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.87bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.87bn

Lifetime cash saved₦379bn

NPV₦56.4bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.6 yr

Unlocked energy8.91 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity53.6 MWp

Capex₦58.6bn

Year-one energy value₦64.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.07tn

NPV₦531bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Doguwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 53.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦58.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦64.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦531bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Doguwa pays back quickly

Of the 78,976 buildings in Doguwa with a modelled payback, 35.0% pay back inside five years and 12.3% inside three.

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How much of Doguwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Doguwa consume 12.7 GWh/yr but want 21.6 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Doguwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Doguwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 78,976 buildings with a modelled result out of 82,902 in Doguwa. 37,591 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,701 (12%)

Under 5 years27,642 (35%)

Under 7 years37,735 (48%)

Under 10 years48,949 (62%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,670 (55%)

Above 15%37,591 (45%)

Above 20%30,098 (36%)

Above 25%23,781 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

14.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.26 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.91 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

272k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Doguwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Doguwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	33,724	2,786	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	15%	6.6 yr
D	23,614	2,572	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	9%	9.1 yr
E	22,028	2,760	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	9%	9.4 yr
A	2,751	1,395	₦751m	₦751m	39%	2.6 yr
B	785	159	₦420m	₦420m	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	81,934	8,931	₦6.11bn	₦6.11bn	11%	7.6 yr
Anchor	361	236	₦543m	₦543m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	232	157	₦137m	₦137m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	231	231	₦15.2m	₦15.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	123	104	₦42.3m	₦42.3m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	21	13	₦24.1m	₦24.1m	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	38,275	3,594	₦314m	₦314m	5%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	21,609	2,480	₦530m	₦530m	13%	7.9 yr
50 100m2	15,867	2,098	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	6,315	1,268	₦2.83bn	₦2.83bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	818	224	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	18	8	₦307m	₦307m	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	25,464	1,138	₦790m	₦790m	15%	6.9 yr
Urban	21,388	6,825	₦3.48bn	₦3.48bn	23%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	18,830	404	₦789m	₦789m	5%	16.6 yr
Rural	17,220	1,305	₦1.81bn	₦1.81bn	11%	8.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	36,414	2,881	₦254m	₦254m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	22,891	3,571	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	10,046	2,478	₦3.98bn	₦3.98bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	7,111	0	₦42.3m	₦42.3m	11%	8.1 yr
Residential Informal	5,459	1	₦122m	₦122m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	231	155	₦305m	₦305m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	231	231	₦15.2m	₦15.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	143	86	₦65.1m	₦65.1m	81%	1.4 yr
School	119	72	₦32.7m	₦32.7m	77%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	42	36	₦8.47m	₦8.47m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	40	34	₦9.4m	₦9.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospital	35	27	₦76.5m	₦76.5m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	82,438	9,514	₦6.85bn	₦6.85bn
Retail	464	158	₦21.3m	₦21.3m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	82,496	9,399	₦6.29bn	₦6.29bn	11%	7.6 yr
Enterprise	380	249	₦567m	₦567m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	26	24	₦17.9m	₦17.9m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	36,425	2,891	₦254m	₦254m
2.0	18,221	2,954	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn
3.0	15,358	2,649	₦4.72bn	₦4.72bn
4.0	6,803	4	₦147m	₦147m
1.0	6,094	1,174	₦326m	₦326m
5.0	1	0	₦352k	₦352k