Kano State

Rooftop solar in Kura, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Kura has 69,659 buildings with a viable rooftop and 482 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

69,659

Usable roof area

2.18 km²

482 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.1bn/yr

10.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kura

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦683bn

NPV₦105bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy13.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity60.8 MWp

Capex₦63.5bn

Year-one energy value₦59.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.83tn

NPV₦481bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kura's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 60.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦59.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦481bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kura pays back quickly

Of the 64,483 buildings in Kura with a modelled payback, 41.9% pay back inside five years and 16.8% inside three.

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How much of Kura's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kura consume 24.4 GWh/yr but want 38.1 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kura

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kura actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 64,483 buildings with a modelled result out of 69,659 in Kura. 36,611 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,821 (17%)

Under 5 years27,048 (42%)

Under 7 years36,752 (57%)

Under 10 years46,251 (72%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%43,599 (63%)

Above 15%36,611 (53%)

Above 20%29,097 (42%)

Above 25%24,504 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

25.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.85 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

204k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kura.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kura

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	31,136	2,780	₦5.25bn	₦5.01bn	21%	4.9 yr
A	13,854	497	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	7%	8.6 yr
E	8,921	1,271	₦1.08bn	₦1.03bn	9%	9.4 yr
D	8,668	1,963	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	9%	9.4 yr
C	7,080	1,446	₦4.55bn	₦4.33bn	11%	8.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	62,997	7,458	₦10.1bn	₦9.68bn	13%	6.6 yr
Commercial Retail	4,190	140	₦120m	₦120m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	2,083	157	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	310	148	₦1.79bn	₦1.75bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	63	48	₦13.2m	₦13.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	15	6	₦8.99m	₦8.99m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦46.5k	₦46.5k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,372	3,456	₦482m	₦476m	9%	8.9 yr
30 50m2	18,229	2,074	₦778m	₦775m	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	12,266	1,463	₦2.01bn	₦2bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,197	742	₦3.38bn	₦3.09bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	556	196	₦4.04bn	₦3.89bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	39	26	₦2.45bn	₦2.4bn	61%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	24,463	1,662	₦4.45bn	₦4.22bn	13%	6.6 yr
Dense Urban	20,699	3,014	₦3.1bn	₦3.09bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	19,663	3,064	₦3.55bn	₦3.54bn	15%	6.6 yr
Unclassified	2,471	205	₦2.01bn	₦1.74bn	11%	7.6 yr
Rural	2,363	12	₦34.4m	₦34.4m	13%	8.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	24,341	2,940	₦237m	₦237m	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Small	17,237	2,978	₦2.5bn	₦2.49bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	11,832	0	₦150m	₦145m	9%	7.9 yr
Residential	6,237	1,540	₦7.24bn	₦6.79bn	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,190	140	₦120m	₦120m	33%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,340	0	₦15.5m	₦15.5m	5%	13.4 yr
Commercial	1,182	30	₦634m	₦634m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	400	51	₦216m	₦216m	37%	2.9 yr
Market	313	2	₦8.12m	₦8.12m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	168	87	₦1.59bn	₦1.55bn	39%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	109	45	₦96.3m	₦96.3m	49%	2.1 yr
School	100	39	₦25.9m	₦25.9m	47%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	69,654	7,957	₦13.1bn	₦12.6bn
Farmland	5	0	₦12.3k	₦12.3k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	67,765	7,726	₦10.5bn	₦10bn	15%	6.1 yr
SME High	1,582	81	₦851m	₦851m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	312	150	₦1.8bn	₦1.75bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	24,328	2,944	₦237m	₦237m
2.0	19,578	2,542	₦2.59bn	₦2.36bn
3.0	13,443	1,516	₦8.78bn	₦8.51bn
4.0	6,701	22	₦276m	₦274m
1.0	4,402	871	₦481m	₦480m
5.0	1,143	52	₦366m	₦366m
6.0	64	10	₦405m	₦405m