Kano State

Rooftop solar in Karaye, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Karaye has 67,523 buildings with a viable rooftop and 445 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.75bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

67,523

Usable roof area

2.03 km²

445 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.75bn/yr

7.73 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.9 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Karaye

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.75bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦507bn

NPV₦78.8bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.9 yr

Unlocked energy9.93 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61.3 MWp

Capex₦66.2bn

Year-one energy value₦75.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.58tn

NPV₦623bn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Karaye's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦66.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦623bn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Karaye pays back quickly

Of the 66,944 buildings in Karaye with a modelled payback, 34.6% pay back inside five years and 11.9% inside three.

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How much of Karaye's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Karaye consume 16 GWh/yr but want 26 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Karaye

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Karaye actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 66,944 buildings with a modelled result out of 67,523 in Karaye. 29,340 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,954 (12%)

Under 5 years23,168 (35%)

Under 7 years29,417 (44%)

Under 10 years38,535 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,155 (52%)

Above 15%29,340 (43%)

Above 20%24,691 (37%)

Above 25%20,688 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

19 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.79 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.93 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

290k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Karaye.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Karaye

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	20,978	2,890	₦2.11bn	₦2.11bn	9%	9.6 yr
E	18,975	2,067	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	9%	9.9 yr
C	16,188	1,964	₦4.44bn	₦4.18bn	9%	9.6 yr
B	11,382	574	₦904m	₦904m	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	66,265	6,860	₦8.65bn	₦8.39bn	11%	9.1 yr
Commercial General	442	222	₦324m	₦324m	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	412	88	₦23.8m	₦23.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	384	307	₦743m	₦743m	81%	1.4 yr
Industrial	9	7	₦10.1m	₦10.1m	75%	1.4 yr
Worship	7	7	₦1.24m	₦1.24m	65%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	2	2	₦525k	₦525k	67%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦909k	₦909k	71%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦476k	₦476k	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	32,367	2,900	₦315m	₦315m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	18,839	2,001	₦687m	₦687m	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	12,527	1,724	₦2.29bn	₦2.27bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,379	720	₦2.73bn	₦2.57bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	385	139	₦2.6bn	₦2.53bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	26	11	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	46,196	6,630	₦7.51bn	₦7.49bn	11%	9.4 yr
Dense Urban	14,850	754	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	17%	6.4 yr
Unclassified	6,424	110	₦749m	₦587m	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	53	1	₦164m	₦93.7m	7%	14.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	34,303	3,351	₦284m	₦284m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	15,093	2,097	₦2.73bn	₦2.71bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	8,827	1,412	₦5.56bn	₦5.32bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Formal	8,011	0	₦75m	₦75m	15%	6.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	414	90	₦24.4m	₦24.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	207	28	₦118m	₦118m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	190	152	₦545m	₦545m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	158	127	₦113m	₦113m	87%	1.1 yr
School	141	109	₦48m	₦48m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial	41	41	₦40.5m	₦40.5m	69%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	29	24	₦148m	₦148m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospital	28	25	₦29.4m	₦29.4m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	67,523	7,495	₦9.75bn	₦9.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	66,882	7,110	₦8.84bn	₦8.58bn	11%	9.1 yr
Enterprise	388	312	₦746m	₦746m	81%	1.4 yr
SME High	253	73	₦167m	₦167m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	34,305	3,352	₦284m	₦284m
2.0	12,296	1,909	₦2.44bn	₦2.26bn
4.0	7,715	17	₦208m	₦208m
3.0	7,082	1,372	₦6.08bn	₦6bn
1.0	6,045	845	₦697m	₦697m
5.0	79	0	₦36.7m	₦36.7m
6.0	1	0	₦3.15m	₦3.15m