Kano State

Rooftop solar in Makoda, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Makoda has 57,108 buildings with a viable rooftop and 285 MWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

57,108

Usable roof area

1.3 km²

285 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.1bn/yr

12.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Makoda

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦640bn

NPV₦103bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy10.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity59.8 MWp

Capex₦64.8bn

Year-one energy value₦78.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.64tn

NPV₦642bn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Makoda's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 59.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦64.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦78.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦642bn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Makoda pays back quickly

Of the 57,054 buildings in Makoda with a modelled payback, 33.3% pay back inside five years and 12.9% inside three.

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How much of Makoda's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Makoda consume 22.1 GWh/yr but want 32.9 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Makoda

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Makoda actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 57,054 buildings with a modelled result out of 57,108 in Makoda. 24,043 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,336 (13%)

Under 5 years18,978 (33%)

Under 7 years24,085 (42%)

Under 10 years29,872 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%27,476 (48%)

Above 15%24,043 (42%)

Above 20%20,330 (36%)

Above 25%17,032 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

24 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.57 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

379k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Makoda.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Makoda

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	19,097	1,417	₦5.15bn	₦3.35bn	9%	9.9 yr
C	18,322	2,463	₦4.91bn	₦4.37bn	15%	7.4 yr
D	18,202	2,293	₦3.69bn	₦3.41bn	7%	13.9 yr
B	1,487	1,151	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	57%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	56,675	6,959	₦14.3bn	₦11.6bn	9%	9.6 yr
Anchor	215	182	₦659m	₦659m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	133	109	₦141m	₦141m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	75	66	₦16m	₦16m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	10	8	₦4.58m	₦4.58m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,513	3,445	₦419m	₦413m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	14,492	2,078	₦1.06bn	₦1bn	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	6,480	1,208	₦3.24bn	₦3.11bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,383	461	₦3.88bn	₦3.25bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	228	126	₦5.92bn	₦4.1bn	65%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	12	6	₦572m	₦572m	33%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	28,981	3,947	₦8.45bn	₦7.6bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	25,507	3,344	₦6.23bn	₦4.46bn	17%	6.1 yr
Unclassified	1,862	30	₦392m	₦383m	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	758	3	₦10.2m	₦10.2m	9%	13.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	36,843	3,670	₦283m	₦283m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	9,809	1,925	₦4.12bn	₦3.93bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	6,894	1,364	₦9.82bn	₦7.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,129	0	₦36.3m	₦36.3m	21%	4.9 yr
Institutional	136	116	₦282m	₦282m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	78	64	₦72.4m	₦72.4m	89%	1.1 yr
School	63	49	₦35.9m	₦35.9m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	31	29	₦360m	₦360m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	25	22	₦2.59m	₦2.59m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	25	22	₦3.3m	₦3.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	21	20	₦21.1m	₦21.1m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospital	19	17	₦19.6m	₦19.6m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	57,106	7,324	₦15.1bn	₦12.5bn
Farmland	2	0	₦1.44m	₦1.44m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	56,878	7,131	₦14.4bn	₦11.8bn	9%	9.6 yr
Enterprise	225	190	₦664m	₦664m	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	5	3	₦3.7m	₦3.7m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	36,854	3,679	₦284m	₦284m
2.0	9,030	1,851	₦3.84bn	₦3.4bn
1.0	4,544	688	₦1.15bn	₦1.07bn
3.0	4,499	1,104	₦9.78bn	₦7.67bn
4.0	2,181	2	₦35.6m	₦35.6m