Kano State

Rooftop solar in Shanono, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Shanono has 77,204 buildings with a viable rooftop and 325 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦3.24bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

77,204

Usable roof area

1.49 km²

325 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦3.24bn/yr

2.33 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shanono

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦3.24bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.24bn

Lifetime cash saved₦183bn

NPV₦25.2bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy5.19 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity37.9 MWp

Capex₦41.9bn

Year-one energy value₦48.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.28tn

NPV₦397bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Shanono's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 37.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦41.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦48.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦397bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shanono pays back quickly

Of the 76,246 buildings in Shanono with a modelled payback, 20.2% pay back inside five years and 8.4% inside three.

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How much of Shanono's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shanono consume 7.11 GWh/yr but want 12.3 GWh/yr. The 42% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shanono

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shanono actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 76,246 buildings with a modelled result out of 77,204 in Shanono. 18,828 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,369 (8%)

Under 5 years15,372 (20%)

Under 7 years18,877 (25%)

Under 10 years26,557 (35%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,289 (30%)

Above 15%18,828 (24%)

Above 20%16,112 (21%)

Above 25%14,309 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

7.44 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.32 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.19 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

185k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shanono.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shanono

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	26,005	1,546	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	7%	15.4 yr
E	23,542	1,236	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	22,235	3,422	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	7%	13.9 yr
B	5,422	153	₦173m	₦173m	11%	8.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	76,399	5,647	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn	7%	14.9 yr
Anchor	291	238	₦326m	₦326m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	224	223	₦38m	₦38m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	201	170	₦223m	₦223m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	79	72	₦13.7m	₦13.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	10	7	₦30.6m	₦30.6m	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	51,461	3,547	₦356m	₦356m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	17,517	1,540	₦487m	₦487m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	6,835	867	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,248	346	₦781m	₦781m	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	142	56	₦442m	₦442m	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	1	1	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	57,588	5,893	₦2.8bn	₦2.8bn	7%	14.6 yr
Unclassified	14,036	27	₦151m	₦151m	5%	16.9 yr
Dense Urban	5,580	437	₦294m	₦294m	13%	6.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	56,037	2,680	₦250m	₦250m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	11,289	2,297	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	5,123	670	₦859m	₦859m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Informal	3,950	0	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	7%	9.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	224	223	₦38m	₦38m	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	174	145	₦178m	₦178m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	123	105	₦90m	₦90m	87%	1.1 yr
School	100	85	₦48m	₦48m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial	47	47	₦50.9m	₦50.9m	71%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	29	20	₦147m	₦147m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	27	24	₦4.18m	₦4.18m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	26	24	₦2.71m	₦2.71m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	77,193	6,353	₦3.22bn	₦3.22bn
Industrial	11	4	₦16m	₦16m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	76,857	6,066	₦2.83bn	₦2.83bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	300	244	₦357m	₦357m	81%	1.4 yr
SME High	47	47	₦50.9m	₦50.9m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	56,055	2,697	₦251m	₦251m
2.0	10,619	1,760	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn
1.0	6,370	938	₦476m	₦476m
3.0	4,020	957	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn
4.0	140	5	₦49.1m	₦49.1m