Kano State

Rooftop solar in Gwarzo, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Gwarzo has 103,453 buildings with a viable rooftop and 601 MWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

103,453

Usable roof area

2.74 km²

601 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.6bn/yr

11.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.9 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gwarzo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦725bn

NPV₦111bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.9 yr

Unlocked energy16 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity77.2 MWp

Capex₦83.6bn

Year-one energy value₦90.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.26tn

NPV₦738bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Gwarzo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 77.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦83.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦90.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦738bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gwarzo pays back quickly

Of the 102,543 buildings in Gwarzo with a modelled payback, 34.8% pay back inside five years and 13.9% inside three.

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How much of Gwarzo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gwarzo consume 25.1 GWh/yr but want 41 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gwarzo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gwarzo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 102,543 buildings with a modelled result out of 103,453 in Gwarzo. 46,115 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,206 (14%)

Under 5 years35,657 (35%)

Under 7 years46,247 (45%)

Under 10 years58,218 (57%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%54,114 (52%)

Above 15%46,115 (45%)

Above 20%38,333 (37%)

Above 25%31,259 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

27.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.14 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

334k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gwarzo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gwarzo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	36,101	4,760	₦4.99bn	₦4.88bn	15%	7.1 yr
D	26,035	3,229	₦2.75bn	₦2.75bn	7%	14.1 yr
E	23,968	2,355	₦2.89bn	₦2.7bn	7%	14.1 yr
A	9,863	1,410	₦860m	₦860m	23%	4.9 yr
B	7,486	2,139	₦2.12bn	₦2.1bn	31%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	101,888	13,062	₦10.7bn	₦10.3bn	11%	8.9 yr
Commercial Retail	564	156	₦44.4m	₦44.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	429	224	₦724m	₦724m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	428	331	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	131	114	₦22m	₦22m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	11	5	₦5.75m	₦5.75m	43%	2.6 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦297k	₦297k	45%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦23k	₦23k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	58,118	6,343	₦663m	₦644m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	25,942	3,534	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	15%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	14,595	2,595	₦3.25bn	₦3.25bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	4,228	1,187	₦3.47bn	₦3.36bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	534	210	₦2.67bn	₦2.5bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	36	24	₦2.38bn	₦2.37bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	68,458	9,069	₦8.31bn	₦8.05bn	9%	13.1 yr
Urban Centre	17,650	4,009	₦3.52bn	₦3.52bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,632	658	₦626m	₦626m	19%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	7,713	157	₦1.16bn	₦1.1bn	5%	16.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	56,929	6,404	₦470m	₦470m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	17,526	3,427	₦3.93bn	₦3.91bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	10,520	1	₦103m	₦103m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential	10,263	2,396	₦5.01bn	₦4.71bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	6,635	834	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	564	156	₦44.4m	₦44.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	258	205	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	166	120	₦130m	₦130m	79%	1.4 yr
School	150	108	₦61.8m	₦61.8m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	123	40	₦130m	₦130m	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial	78	17	₦362m	₦362m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospital	45	42	₦237m	₦237m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	103,437	13,891	₦13.5bn	₦13.2bn
Farmland	16	2	₦161m	₦145m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	102,812	13,499	₦11bn	₦10.6bn	11%	8.9 yr
Enterprise	437	336	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	204	58	₦492m	₦492m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	56,944	6,430	₦472m	₦472m
2.0	17,787	3,151	₦3.15bn	₦3.13bn
3.0	10,706	2,305	₦7.22bn	₦6.95bn
4.0	10,288	381	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn
1.0	7,611	1,624	₦1.18bn	₦1.16bn
5.0	105	2	₦300m	₦300m
6.0	12	0	₦18m	₦18m