Kano State

Rooftop solar in Garko, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Garko has 92,795 buildings with a viable rooftop and 482 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

92,795

Usable roof area

2.21 km²

482 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.7bn/yr

7.13 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Garko

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.55bn

Lifetime cash saved₦518bn

NPV₦77.9bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy11.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity64.2 MWp

Capex₦70.2bn

Year-one energy value₦78.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.7tn

NPV₦645bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Garko's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 64.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦70.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦78.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦645bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Garko pays back quickly

Of the 91,818 buildings in Garko with a modelled payback, 30.0% pay back inside five years and 12.1% inside three.

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How much of Garko's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Garko consume 18.4 GWh/yr but want 30.2 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Garko

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Garko actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 91,818 buildings with a modelled result out of 92,795 in Garko. 37,491 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,069 (12%)

Under 5 years27,503 (30%)

Under 7 years37,582 (41%)

Under 10 years47,339 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%43,545 (47%)

Above 15%37,491 (40%)

Above 20%29,971 (32%)

Above 25%24,797 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

20.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.44 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

334k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Garko.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Garko

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	29,421	3,500	₦2.63bn	₦2.63bn	7%	14.1 yr
C	21,599	2,161	₦2.33bn	₦2.19bn	9%	13.9 yr
B	20,675	2,352	₦1.91bn	₦1.9bn	19%	5.4 yr
E	18,038	1,501	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn	7%	15.4 yr
A	3,062	1,637	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	37%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	92,346	10,761	₦8.53bn	₦8.38bn	9%	9.9 yr
Anchor	255	223	₦1bn	₦1bn	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	146	126	₦148m	₦148m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	27	26	₦5.65m	₦5.65m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	10	6	₦2.93m	₦2.93m	41%	2.4 yr
Industrial	6	4	₦1.61m	₦1.61m	41%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	4	4	₦1.53m	₦1.53m	73%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦1.07m	₦1.07m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	52,413	4,811	₦496m	₦496m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	25,780	3,421	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	11,837	2,080	₦2.81bn	₦2.81bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	2,444	708	₦2.31bn	₦2.28bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	302	123	₦2.13bn	₦2.01bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	19	8	₦709m	₦709m	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	62,558	6,852	₦6.31bn	₦6.16bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	23,907	4,078	₦2.63bn	₦2.63bn	21%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	6,330	221	₦757m	₦757m	7%	15.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	57,938	5,768	₦438m	₦438m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	17,089	3,146	₦3.67bn	₦3.67bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	8,375	0	₦47.8m	₦47.8m	13%	7.6 yr
Residential	7,397	1,643	₦4.1bn	₦3.95bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	1,545	204	₦277m	₦277m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	133	114	₦747m	₦747m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	111	101	₦89.9m	₦89.9m	85%	1.1 yr
School	81	69	₦24.2m	₦24.2m	83%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	31	30	₦7.18m	₦7.18m	71%	1.4 yr
Hospital	21	15	₦78.4m	₦78.4m	53%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	19	18	₦156m	₦156m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	17	15	₦35.2m	₦35.2m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	92,795	11,151	₦9.7bn	₦9.55bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	92,518	10,909	₦8.67bn	₦8.52bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	260	226	₦1bn	₦1bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	17	16	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	57,942	5,772	₦439m	₦439m
2.0	13,777	2,613	₦2.9bn	₦2.87bn
4.0	7,386	87	₦272m	₦272m
1.0	6,946	1,183	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn
3.0	6,744	1,496	₦4.88bn	₦4.76bn