Kano State

Rooftop solar in Madobi, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Madobi has 69,422 buildings with a viable rooftop and 453 MWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

69,422

Usable roof area

2.06 km²

453 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.3bn/yr

15.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Madobi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦964bn

NPV₦153bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy16.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity78.6 MWp

Capex₦84.6bn

Year-one energy value₦94.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.46tn

NPV₦776bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Madobi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 78.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦84.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦776bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Madobi pays back quickly

Of the 69,081 buildings in Madobi with a modelled payback, 44.7% pay back inside five years and 17.7% inside three.

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How much of Madobi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Madobi consume 28.7 GWh/yr but want 45.3 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Madobi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Madobi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 69,081 buildings with a modelled result out of 69,422 in Madobi. 38,811 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,213 (18%)

Under 5 years30,885 (45%)

Under 7 years38,886 (56%)

Under 10 years45,753 (66%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%43,306 (62%)

Above 15%38,811 (56%)

Above 20%32,809 (47%)

Above 25%28,265 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

34.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.35 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

327k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Madobi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Madobi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	19,347	3,919	₦7.65bn	₦7.63bn	19%	5.9 yr
B	18,048	2,421	₦3.1bn	₦3.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	17,510	3,716	₦4.67bn	₦4.61bn	9%	9.6 yr
E	13,530	1,966	₦2.86bn	₦2.86bn	9%	13.6 yr
A	987	117	₦65.6m	₦65.6m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	68,610	11,492	₦14.9bn	₦14.9bn	19%	5.9 yr
Anchor	349	303	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	232	170	₦220m	₦220m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	174	152	₦48.4m	₦48.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	41	15	₦2.05m	₦2.05m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	16	7	₦11.6m	₦11.6m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,792	4,680	₦448m	₦447m	7%	14.1 yr
30 50m2	18,219	3,125	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	19%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	12,477	2,896	₦5.04bn	₦5.04bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,516	1,225	₦4.98bn	₦4.97bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	391	193	₦3.11bn	₦3.03bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	27	20	₦3.43bn	₦3.43bn	75%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	41,823	9,035	₦13.3bn	₦13.2bn	11%	8.9 yr
Dense Urban	13,224	2,589	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	11,698	312	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	17%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	2,677	203	₦1.42bn	₦1.41bn	7%	14.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	40,654	5,984	₦455m	₦455m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Small	18,869	3,862	₦6.36bn	₦6.36bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	7,124	1,368	₦7.93bn	₦7.86bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,963	278	₦190m	₦190m	29%	3.9 yr
Institutional	242	205	₦2.96bn	₦2.96bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	140	123	₦118m	₦118m	87%	1.1 yr
School	131	116	₦82.6m	₦82.6m	85%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	58	51	₦7.72m	₦7.72m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	57	49	₦6.86m	₦6.86m	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	41	15	₦2.05m	₦2.05m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	32	12	₦17.2m	₦17.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospital	26	20	₦63m	₦63m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	69,422	12,139	₦18.3bn	₦18.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	69,016	11,812	₦15.2bn	₦15.1bn	19%	5.9 yr
Enterprise	362	310	₦3.13bn	₦3.13bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	44	17	₦21.5m	₦21.5m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	40,680	6,007	₦457m	₦457m
2.0	14,492	2,636	₦4.7bn	₦4.7bn
3.0	8,833	2,472	₦11.5bn	₦11.5bn
1.0	4,973	936	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn
4.0	444	88	₦282m	₦282m