Kano State

Rooftop solar in Ajingi, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Ajingi has 87,422 buildings with a viable rooftop and 405 MWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.78bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

87,422

Usable roof area

1.85 km²

405 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.78bn/yr

6.15 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ajingi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.78bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.75bn

Lifetime cash saved₦413bn

NPV₦63.2bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.6 yr

Unlocked energy9.19 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity55.7 MWp

Capex₦61bn

Year-one energy value₦70bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.31tn

NPV₦577bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Ajingi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 55.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦61bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70bn/yr
NPV: ₦577bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ajingi pays back quickly

Of the 87,247 buildings in Ajingi with a modelled payback, 30.1% pay back inside five years and 14.1% inside three.

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How much of Ajingi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ajingi consume 13.5 GWh/yr but want 22.7 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ajingi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ajingi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 87,247 buildings with a modelled result out of 87,422 in Ajingi. 31,986 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,259 (14%)

Under 5 years26,241 (30%)

Under 7 years32,054 (37%)

Under 10 years40,669 (47%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%37,217 (43%)

Above 15%31,986 (37%)

Above 20%27,757 (32%)

Above 25%23,931 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

16 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.79 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.19 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

258k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ajingi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ajingi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	32,280	4,984	₦2.56bn	₦2.56bn	9%	13.6 yr
C	25,321	3,948	₦2.87bn	₦2.86bn	9%	12.9 yr
D	24,554	3,097	₦2.1bn	₦2.08bn	7%	15.1 yr
B	5,267	133	₦245m	₦245m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	86,609	11,489	₦6.72bn	₦6.69bn	9%	13.6 yr
Worship	278	278	₦70.3m	₦70.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	269	247	₦778m	₦778m	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	200	141	₦204m	₦204m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	61	3	₦2.47m	₦2.47m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	5	4	₦1.9m	₦1.9m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	55,250	5,692	₦531m	₦526m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	19,715	3,555	₦1.12bn	₦1.11bn	17%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	10,235	2,229	₦2.67bn	₦2.66bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,973	596	₦1.9bn	₦1.89bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	241	84	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	8	6	₦257m	₦257m	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	55,654	11,115	₦5.98bn	₦5.98bn	9%	13.1 yr
Unclassified	14,855	386	₦1.19bn	₦1.16bn	5%	16.9 yr
Dense Urban	8,707	576	₦421m	₦421m	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	8,206	85	₦184m	₦184m	7%	14.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	56,645	5,084	₦426m	₦426m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	21,778	4,358	₦3.56bn	₦3.55bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	8,186	2,047	₦2.74bn	₦2.72bn	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	220	213	₦346m	₦346m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	112	105	₦110m	₦110m	89%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	95	95	₦17.8m	₦17.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	92	92	₦9.77m	₦9.77m	67%	1.6 yr
School	80	72	₦48.4m	₦48.4m	87%	1.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	61	3	₦2.47m	₦2.47m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	34	16	₦32.3m	₦32.3m	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	33	0	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	29	27	₦420m	₦420m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	87,422	12,162	₦7.78bn	₦7.75bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	87,081	11,895	₦6.95bn	₦6.92bn	9%	13.6 yr
Enterprise	274	251	₦780m	₦780m	79%	1.4 yr
SME High	67	16	₦44.3m	₦44.3m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	56,691	5,130	₦429m	₦429m
2.0	15,110	3,573	₦2.72bn	₦2.71bn
1.0	8,078	1,803	₦1.05bn	₦1.04bn
3.0	6,701	1,651	₦3.52bn	₦3.51bn
4.0	802	5	₦37.3m	₦37.3m
5.0	39	0	₦13m	₦13m
6.0	1	0	₦4.21m	₦4.21m