Kano State

Rooftop solar in Wudil, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Wudil has 94,304 buildings with a viable rooftop and 603 MWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

94,304

Usable roof area

2.74 km²

603 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.5bn/yr

16.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Wudil

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦19.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.03tn

NPV₦157bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy16.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity80.6 MWp

Capex₦86bn

Year-one energy value₦84.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.99tn

NPV₦685bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Wudil's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 80.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦86bn
Year 1 savings: ₦84.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦685bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Wudil pays back quickly

Of the 93,622 buildings in Wudil with a modelled payback, 42.5% pay back inside five years and 14.5% inside three.

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How much of Wudil's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Wudil consume 37.2 GWh/yr but want 53.6 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Wudil

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Wudil actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 93,622 buildings with a modelled result out of 94,304 in Wudil. 55,229 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,539 (14%)

Under 5 years39,748 (42%)

Under 7 years55,424 (59%)

Under 10 years66,091 (71%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%63,771 (68%)

Above 15%55,229 (59%)

Above 20%43,308 (46%)

Above 25%34,461 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

37.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.08 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

326k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Wudil.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Wudil

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	27,689	1,490	₦5.79bn	₦5.71bn	23%	4.9 yr
B	22,509	3,645	₦9.03bn	₦8.29bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	17,549	2,786	₦2.06bn	₦1.9bn	15%	6.9 yr
D	14,327	1,043	₦1.68bn	₦1.63bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	12,230	2,986	₦1.95bn	₦1.86bn	9%	13.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	91,562	11,226	₦16.2bn	₦15.1bn	17%	5.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,441	170	₦126m	₦126m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	710	190	₦2.02bn	₦1.95bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	351	196	₦2.11bn	₦2.1bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	220	161	₦35.6m	₦35.6m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	18	7	₦71.4m	₦67.3m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	2	0	₦579k	₦579k	33%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	49,842	5,184	₦653m	₦652m	9%	9.6 yr
30 50m2	24,279	3,291	₦1.31bn	₦1.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	14,885	2,214	₦3.66bn	₦2.99bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	4,574	946	₦4.08bn	₦3.78bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	662	272	₦5.96bn	₦5.85bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	62	43	₦4.85bn	₦4.82bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	45,500	7,584	₦8.37bn	₦8.18bn	9%	9.6 yr
Urban Centre	33,129	1,843	₦9.42bn	₦9.28bn	23%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	12,266	2,301	₦872m	₦872m	21%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	3,409	222	₦1.85bn	₦1.05bn	11%	8.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	43,454	3,794	₦346m	₦346m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Informal	15,368	641	₦1.98bn	₦1.96bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	14,453	3,948	₦4.27bn	₦3.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	10,443	2,843	₦9.51bn	₦9.15bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	7,838	0	₦48.2m	₦48.2m	13%	7.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,441	170	₦126m	₦126m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	394	23	₦1.41bn	₦1.38bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	238	143	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	134	79	₦97.7m	₦97.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	132	77	₦311m	₦309m	47%	2.1 yr
School	116	61	₦81.4m	₦81.4m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	75	54	₦6.07m	₦6.07m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	94,304	11,950	₦20.5bn	₦19.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	93,421	11,653	₦16.7bn	₦15.6bn	19%	5.9 yr
SME High	529	100	₦1.72bn	₦1.69bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	354	197	₦2.12bn	₦2.1bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	43,052	3,811	₦345m	₦345m
2.0	20,306	3,693	₦3.9bn	₦3.06bn
3.0	13,121	2,427	₦11.8bn	₦11.6bn
4.0	9,326	273	₦2.15bn	₦2.14bn
1.0	8,246	1,671	₦886m	₦885m
5.0	244	70	₦1.3bn	₦1.26bn
6.0	9	5	₦116m	₦116m