Kano State

Rooftop solar in Kunchi, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Kunchi has 57,494 buildings with a viable rooftop and 264 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.21bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

57,494

Usable roof area

1.21 km²

264 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.21bn/yr

4.11 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kunchi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.21bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.73bn

Lifetime cash saved₦256bn

NPV₦38.6bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.6 yr

Unlocked energy6.25 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity38 MWp

Capex₦41.6bn

Year-one energy value₦47.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.26tn

NPV₦395bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kunchi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 38 MWp
Capital cost: ₦41.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦47.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦395bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kunchi pays back quickly

Of the 57,339 buildings in Kunchi with a modelled payback, 26.5% pay back inside five years and 11.7% inside three.

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How much of Kunchi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kunchi consume 9.49 GWh/yr but want 15.7 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kunchi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kunchi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 57,339 buildings with a modelled result out of 57,494 in Kunchi. 18,474 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,704 (12%)

Under 5 years15,223 (27%)

Under 7 years18,514 (32%)

Under 10 years22,889 (40%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,134 (37%)

Above 15%18,474 (32%)

Above 20%16,009 (28%)

Above 25%14,206 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

10.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.17 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.25 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

200k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kunchi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kunchi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	19,302	2,201	₦1.35bn	₦1.22bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	17,787	2,346	₦1.5bn	₦1.45bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	16,845	1,741	₦2bn	₦1.71bn	7%	15.4 yr
B	3,504	395	₦344m	₦344m	21%	5.1 yr
A	56	0	₦2.89m	₦2.89m	11%	8.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	56,457	5,718	₦4.31bn	₦3.84bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial General	428	399	₦290m	₦290m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	290	264	₦546m	₦546m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	218	206	₦27.2m	₦27.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	89	85	₦22.3m	₦22.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	12	11	₦8.92m	₦8.92m	77%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	36,505	2,947	₦306m	₦299m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	13,256	1,901	₦605m	₦605m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	6,427	1,322	₦1.66bn	₦1.48bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,190	446	₦1.74bn	₦1.45bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	110	62	₦700m	₦700m	57%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	6	5	₦198m	₦198m	53%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	40,541	6,430	₦4.21bn	₦3.74bn	9%	13.9 yr
Unclassified	15,103	146	₦557m	₦551m	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	1,042	9	₦14.8m	₦14.8m	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	808	98	₦427m	₦427m	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	41,197	2,672	₦210m	₦210m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	10,762	2,219	₦2.08bn	₦1.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	4,498	827	₦2.03bn	₦1.73bn	23%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	218	206	₦27.2m	₦27.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Market	201	190	₦21.9m	₦21.9m	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	175	159	₦242m	₦242m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	101	94	₦67.8m	₦67.8m	87%	1.1 yr
School	90	84	₦58.2m	₦58.2m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	61	58	₦73.1m	₦73.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospital	35	33	₦59.7m	₦59.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	34	28	₦265m	₦265m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	30	30	₦7.14m	₦7.14m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	57,494	6,683	₦5.21bn	₦4.73bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	57,108	6,327	₦4.53bn	₦4.06bn	7%	14.6 yr
Enterprise	302	275	₦555m	₦555m	81%	1.4 yr
SME High	84	81	₦120m	₦120m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	41,207	2,681	₦210m	₦210m
2.0	8,197	1,909	₦1.88bn	₦1.64bn
1.0	4,865	983	₦482m	₦479m
3.0	3,211	1,096	₦2.57bn	₦2.33bn
4.0	14	14	₦68.9m	₦68.9m