Kano State

Rooftop solar in Garun Malam, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Garun Malam has 50,980 buildings with a viable rooftop and 367 MWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.16bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

50,980

Usable roof area

1.66 km²

367 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.16bn/yr

7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Garun Malam

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.16bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.02bn

Lifetime cash saved₦500bn

NPV₦76.3bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy12.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity50.3 MWp

Capex₦52.5bn

Year-one energy value₦51.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.44tn

NPV₦418bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Garun Malam's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 50.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦52.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦51.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦418bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Garun Malam pays back quickly

Of the 50,100 buildings in Garun Malam with a modelled payback, 46.6% pay back inside five years and 19.0% inside three.

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How much of Garun Malam's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Garun Malam consume 18.5 GWh/yr but want 30.7 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Garun Malam

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Garun Malam actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 50,100 buildings with a modelled result out of 50,980 in Garun Malam. 31,790 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,516 (19%)

Under 5 years23,343 (47%)

Under 7 years31,882 (64%)

Under 10 years38,266 (76%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%36,852 (72%)

Above 15%31,790 (62%)

Above 20%25,247 (50%)

Above 25%20,725 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

19.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.94 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

180k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Garun Malam.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Garun Malam

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	24,625	3,904	₦4.82bn	₦4.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	11,122	1,925	₦2.21bn	₦2.15bn	19%	5.6 yr
A	5,711	241	₦148m	₦148m	13%	7.1 yr
D	4,831	525	₦545m	₦545m	7%	13.9 yr
E	4,691	1,298	₦1.44bn	₦1.38bn	13%	6.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	47,231	6,854	₦6.72bn	₦6.58bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial Retail	2,531	486	₦117m	₦117m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	976	398	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	222	148	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	20	7	₦8.7m	₦8.7m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	24,825	3,261	₦337m	₦337m	11%	8.4 yr
30 50m2	12,663	1,899	₦576m	₦573m	21%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	9,716	1,735	₦1.81bn	₦1.79bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,369	828	₦2.6bn	₦2.48bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	373	145	₦1.9bn	₦1.9bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	34	25	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	29,913	4,181	₦4.62bn	₦4.61bn	21%	5.1 yr
Urban	15,185	3,323	₦3.88bn	₦3.76bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	3,794	308	₦211m	₦211m	19%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	2,088	81	₦441m	₦438m	7%	13.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	18,395	2,841	₦190m	₦190m	9%	9.4 yr
Residential Small	14,460	2,543	₦2.14bn	₦2.12bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	8,560	1,470	₦4.34bn	₦4.22bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,804	0	₦44.5m	₦44.5m	15%	6.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,531	486	₦117m	₦117m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	463	280	₦919m	₦919m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	371	31	₦223m	₦223m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	111	76	₦1bn	₦1bn	47%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	77	51	₦39.8m	₦39.8m	67%	1.6 yr
School	72	50	₦26.6m	₦26.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Unknown	32	14	₦12.5m	₦12.5m	33%	3.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	27	18	₦57.7m	₦57.7m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	50,980	7,893	₦9.16bn	₦9.02bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	49,922	7,432	₦6.93bn	₦6.79bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	834	311	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	224	150	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	18,414	2,850	₦190m	₦190m
2.0	11,927	2,131	₦1.87bn	₦1.81bn
3.0	9,113	1,652	₦5.77bn	₦5.7bn
4.0	6,570	52	₦461m	₦461m
1.0	4,680	1,202	₦461m	₦461m
5.0	264	4	₦201m	₦201m
6.0	12	2	₦204m	₦204m