Kano State

Rooftop solar in Dala, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Dala has 117,753 buildings with a viable rooftop and 880 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.85bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

117,753

Usable roof area

3.98 km²

880 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.85bn/yr

3.82 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dala

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.85bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.59bn

Lifetime cash saved₦600bn

NPV₦72.3bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy20.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity85.9 MWp

Capex₦89.8bn

Year-one energy value₦52bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.45tn

NPV₦380bn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Dala's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 85.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦89.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦52bn/yr
NPV: ₦380bn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dala pays back quickly

Of the 114,312 buildings in Dala with a modelled payback, 41.0% pay back inside five years and 1.4% inside three.

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How much of Dala's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dala consume 34.1 GWh/yr but want 54.2 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dala

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dala actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 114,312 buildings with a modelled result out of 117,753 in Dala. 73,364 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,593 (1%)

Under 5 years46,824 (41%)

Under 7 years73,468 (64%)

Under 10 years98,927 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%96,028 (82%)

Above 15%73,364 (62%)

Above 20%52,567 (45%)

Above 25%35,841 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

26.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.93 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

268k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dala.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dala

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	117,753	1,515	₦9.85bn	₦9.59bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	115,883	1,346	₦6.48bn	₦6.31bn	19%	5.9 yr
Commercial General	871	103	₦2.27bn	₦2.23bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	572	34	₦70.1m	₦70.1m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	370	26	₦965m	₦922m	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	20	2	₦2.05m	₦2.05m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	12	2	₦28.3m	₦28.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	9	2	₦19.1m	₦19.1m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	8	0	₦2.61m	₦2.61m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	3	0	₦1m	₦1m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	3	0	₦1.03m	₦1.03m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦85.7k	₦85.7k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	57,029	497	₦501m	₦473m	13%	7.4 yr
30 50m2	28,892	274	₦512m	₦512m	19%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	21,957	305	₦975m	₦975m	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	8,564	277	₦2.53bn	₦2.39bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,249	155	₦3.47bn	₦3.43bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	62	7	₦1.86bn	₦1.82bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	117,010	1,495	₦8.88bn	₦8.79bn	19%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	743	20	₦968m	₦796m	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	88,607	834	₦5.89bn	₦5.89bn	21%	5.1 yr
Shed	24,646	47	₦109m	₦109m	13%	7.6 yr
Residential Small	2,157	387	₦123m	₦95.3m	27%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	571	34	₦68.3m	₦68.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential	473	78	₦364m	₦220m	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	334	74	₦1.66bn	₦1.62bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	176	8	₦604m	₦604m	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial	157	6	₦387m	₦378m	37%	2.9 yr
School	135	5	₦27.2m	₦27.2m	43%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	105	3	₦22m	₦22m	43%	2.4 yr
Market	101	0	₦3.18m	₦3.18m	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	77	8	₦62.5m	₦62.5m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	117,745	1,515	₦9.85bn	₦9.59bn
Farmland	8	0	₦447k	₦447k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	116,870	1,407	₦6.8bn	₦6.63bn	19%	5.9 yr
SME High	507	82	₦2.08bn	₦2.03bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	376	26	₦967m	₦924m	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	42,310	506	₦847m	₦847m
3.0	33,088	464	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn
1.0	18,316	162	₦119m	₦119m
4.0	11,965	260	₦5.29bn	₦5.08bn
0.0	11,781	47	₦47.9m	₦47.9m
5.0	228	56	₦813m	₦813m
6.0	65	20	₦1.1bn	₦1.06bn