Kano State

Rooftop solar in Rimin Gado, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Rimin Gado has 50,361 buildings with a viable rooftop and 294 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.32bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

50,361

Usable roof area

1.34 km²

294 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.32bn/yr

4.61 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Rimin Gado

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.32bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.28bn

Lifetime cash saved₦343bn

NPV₦51.4bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy7.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity50.7 MWp

Capex₦55.1bn

Year-one energy value₦63.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3tn

NPV₦525bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Rimin Gado's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 50.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦55.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦63.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦525bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Rimin Gado pays back quickly

Of the 50,144 buildings in Rimin Gado with a modelled payback, 32.8% pay back inside five years and 8.0% inside three.

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How much of Rimin Gado's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Rimin Gado consume 12.2 GWh/yr but want 19.9 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Rimin Gado

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Rimin Gado actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 50,144 buildings with a modelled result out of 50,361 in Rimin Gado. 20,540 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,011 (8%)

Under 5 years16,437 (33%)

Under 7 years20,586 (41%)

Under 10 years25,907 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,736 (47%)

Above 15%20,540 (41%)

Above 20%17,411 (35%)

Above 25%14,806 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

13.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

261k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Rimin Gado.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Rimin Gado

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	15,099	1,590	₦2.62bn	₦2.59bn	11%	9.4 yr
D	14,686	1,174	₦1.59bn	₦1.58bn	7%	13.9 yr
E	13,455	992	₦1.21bn	₦1.2bn	7%	13.9 yr
B	7,121	227	₦910m	₦910m	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	49,875	3,578	₦5.59bn	₦5.58bn	9%	9.9 yr
Anchor	223	195	₦504m	₦472m	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	128	101	₦207m	₦207m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	111	95	₦20.1m	₦20.1m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	18	12	₦821k	₦821k	47%	2.1 yr
Industrial	6	2	₦1.24m	₦1.24m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	27,298	1,839	₦258m	₦257m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	12,891	956	₦552m	₦552m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	7,904	755	₦1.9bn	₦1.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	2,096	383	₦1.88bn	₦1.87bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	168	46	₦1.26bn	₦1.23bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	4	4	₦465m	₦465m	53%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	38,560	3,593	₦4.09bn	₦4.08bn	9%	13.1 yr
Dense Urban	8,278	337	₦1.78bn	₦1.75bn	21%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	3,523	53	₦450m	₦450m	5%	16.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	30,475	1,806	₦169m	₦169m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	10,784	1,061	₦2.41bn	₦2.41bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	5,496	711	₦2.97bn	₦2.96bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	3,116	0	₦41.4m	₦41.4m	17%	6.4 yr
Institutional	149	127	₦353m	₦353m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	87	76	₦57.7m	₦57.7m	87%	1.1 yr
School	81	70	₦32m	₦32m	85%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	38	33	₦4.84m	₦4.84m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	36	31	₦4.34m	₦4.34m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	24	22	₦252m	₦221m	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	18	12	₦821k	₦821k	47%	2.1 yr
Hospital	15	13	₦17m	₦16.1m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	50,361	3,983	₦6.32bn	₦6.28bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	50,130	3,785	₦5.82bn	₦5.81bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	229	197	₦505m	₦474m	79%	1.4 yr
SME High	2	1	₦270k	₦270k	37%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	30,491	1,822	₦170m	₦170m
1.0	7,027	685	₦963m	₦963m
2.0	6,932	925	₦1.86bn	₦1.85bn
3.0	3,211	551	₦3.28bn	₦3.25bn
4.0	2,700	0	₦47.8m	₦47.8m