Kano State

Rooftop solar in Kiru, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Kiru has 118,597 buildings with a viable rooftop and 900 MWp of roof capacity. 19% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

118,597

Usable roof area

4.08 km²

900 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.8bn/yr

23.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.1 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kiru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦29bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.55tn

NPV₦245bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.1 yr

Unlocked energy32.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity162 MWp

Capex₦173bn

Year-one energy value₦195bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.24tn

NPV₦1.61tn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kiru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 162 MWp
Capital cost: ₦173bn
Year 1 savings: ₦195bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.61tn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kiru pays back quickly

Of the 117,881 buildings in Kiru with a modelled payback, 48.7% pay back inside five years and 20.6% inside three.

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How much of Kiru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kiru consume 49.4 GWh/yr but want 81.7 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kiru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kiru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 117,881 buildings with a modelled result out of 118,597 in Kiru. 68,079 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years24,298 (21%)

Under 5 years57,393 (49%)

Under 7 years68,216 (58%)

Under 10 years79,560 (67%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%75,410 (64%)

Above 15%68,079 (57%)

Above 20%59,935 (51%)

Above 25%53,958 (45%)

CO₂ avoided

59.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

32.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

732k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kiru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kiru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	32,587	6,515	₦9.2bn	₦8.82bn	11%	9.4 yr
C	29,259	6,818	₦9.28bn	₦9.02bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	28,563	6,203	₦7.13bn	₦7.04bn	11%	8.9 yr
B	17,243	2,402	₦3.39bn	₦3.36bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	10,945	1,044	₦797m	₦797m	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	115,303	21,536	₦26.5bn	₦26bn	19%	5.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,547	509	₦105m	₦105m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,132	415	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	454	375	₦2.07bn	₦1.89bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	106	95	₦35m	₦35m	65%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	33	33	₦12.5m	₦12.5m	73%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	9	9	₦9.82m	₦9.82m	75%	1.4 yr
Industrial	7	4	₦6.49m	₦6.49m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	6	6	₦4.99m	₦4.99m	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	49,637	7,633	₦682m	₦681m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	32,874	6,361	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	19%	5.6 yr
50 100m2	27,127	6,295	₦9.4bn	₦9.33bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	7,969	2,339	₦9.9bn	₦9.61bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	935	325	₦5.49bn	₦5.23bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	55	29	₦1.94bn	₦1.79bn	43%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	76,164	18,698	₦22.7bn	₦22.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	25,755	3,722	₦4.61bn	₦4.55bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	13,520	423	₦2.3bn	₦2.01bn	5%	15.9 yr
Rural	3,158	139	₦215m	₦215m	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	61,285	9,870	₦724m	₦724m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	33,868	8,203	₦11.2bn	₦11.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	10,133	2,797	₦14.1bn	₦13.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	7,385	666	₦404m	₦404m	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,615	0	₦31.4m	₦31.4m	19%	5.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,575	537	₦114m	₦114m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	565	32	₦291m	₦291m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	348	226	₦384m	₦384m	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	242	191	₦1.54bn	₦1.39bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	179	150	₦166m	₦166m	85%	1.1 yr
School	147	116	₦114m	₦114m	85%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	51	48	₦9.98m	₦9.98m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	118,597	22,982	₦29.8bn	₦29bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	117,220	22,342	₦27bn	₦26.5bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	926	271	₦690m	₦690m	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	451	369	₦2.07bn	₦1.88bn	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	60,761	9,893	₦724m	₦724m
2.0	23,742	5,832	₦9.39bn	₦9.3bn
3.0	15,526	4,063	₦15.1bn	₦14.4bn
1.0	12,128	2,807	₦3.51bn	₦3.49bn
4.0	5,932	317	₦580m	₦580m
5.0	477	63	₦330m	₦330m
6.0	31	7	₦175m	₦175m