Kano State

Rooftop solar in Tofa, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Tofa has 63,702 buildings with a viable rooftop and 456 MWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

63,702

Usable roof area

2.07 km²

456 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.2bn/yr

11.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tofa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦762bn

NPV₦118bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy13.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.4 MWp

Capex₦61.6bn

Year-one energy value₦62.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.97tn

NPV₦510bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Tofa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦61.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦62.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦510bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tofa pays back quickly

Of the 63,292 buildings in Tofa with a modelled payback, 40.4% pay back inside five years and 18.0% inside three.

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How much of Tofa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tofa consume 24.4 GWh/yr but want 38.1 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tofa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tofa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 63,292 buildings with a modelled result out of 63,702 in Tofa. 35,255 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,405 (18%)

Under 5 years25,558 (40%)

Under 7 years35,366 (56%)

Under 10 years42,647 (67%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,847 (64%)

Above 15%35,255 (55%)

Above 20%27,573 (43%)

Above 25%23,460 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

27.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.94 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

211k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tofa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tofa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	19,869	2,185	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	9%	13.1 yr
B	17,049	3,219	₦6.09bn	₦6.08bn	21%	5.4 yr
A	11,072	2,965	₦2.96bn	₦2.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	10,601	2,409	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	5,111	782	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	9%	13.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	62,880	10,931	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	17%	6.1 yr
Anchor	245	190	₦2.49bn	₦2.48bn	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	237	185	₦307m	₦307m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	234	170	₦19.7m	₦19.7m	47%	2.1 yr
Worship	105	83	₦28.5m	₦28.5m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦644k	₦644k	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,331	5,042	₦402m	₦398m	9%	13.1 yr
30 50m2	15,286	2,608	₦688m	₦688m	19%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	9,745	2,150	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,547	1,264	₦3.23bn	₦3.17bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	739	455	₦4.96bn	₦4.96bn	67%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	54	41	₦2.92bn	₦2.91bn	61%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	43,903	7,422	₦8.05bn	₦8.05bn	13%	7.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,858	2,430	₦2.86bn	₦2.85bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	3,485	184	₦946m	₦878m	7%	14.9 yr
Urban Centre	3,456	1,524	₦2.38bn	₦2.38bn	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	38,908	5,577	₦401m	₦401m	9%	12.9 yr
Residential Small	13,924	3,637	₦2.66bn	₦2.66bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	6,132	1,706	₦8.23bn	₦8.16bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	3,916	11	₦97.1m	₦97.1m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	234	170	₦19.7m	₦19.7m	47%	2.1 yr
Institutional	162	124	₦2.02bn	₦2.02bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	102	86	₦98m	₦98m	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	82	65	₦71.8m	₦71.8m	81%	1.4 yr
School	74	55	₦35.7m	₦35.7m	77%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	37	29	₦14m	₦14m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	33	27	₦2.83m	₦2.83m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	27	19	₦388m	₦380m	47%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	63,702	11,560	₦14.2bn	₦14.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	63,349	11,278	₦11.6bn	₦11.6bn	17%	6.1 yr
Enterprise	246	191	₦2.49bn	₦2.48bn	61%	1.9 yr
SME High	107	91	₦104m	₦104m	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	38,927	5,594	₦402m	₦402m
2.0	12,086	2,296	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn
3.0	8,200	2,833	₦11bn	₦11bn
1.0	4,127	813	₦486m	₦482m
4.0	362	24	₦138m	₦138m