Kano State

Rooftop solar in Bunkure, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Bunkure has 89,287 buildings with a viable rooftop and 513 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

89,287

Usable roof area

2.34 km²

513 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.8bn/yr

9.73 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bunkure

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦620bn

NPV₦96.1bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy10.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity68.3 MWp

Capex₦74.4bn

Year-one energy value₦84.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.02tn

NPV₦701bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Bunkure's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 68.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦74.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦84.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦701bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bunkure pays back quickly

Of the 87,283 buildings in Bunkure with a modelled payback, 29.4% pay back inside five years and 10.8% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Bunkure's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bunkure consume 18.9 GWh/yr but want 29.6 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Bunkure

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bunkure actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 87,283 buildings with a modelled result out of 89,287 in Bunkure. 32,565 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,459 (11%)

Under 5 years25,641 (29%)

Under 7 years32,661 (37%)

Under 10 years45,315 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,465 (45%)

Above 15%32,565 (36%)

Above 20%27,199 (30%)

Above 25%23,345 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

22.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

334k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bunkure.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bunkure

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	26,929	2,920	₦2.2bn	₦2.2bn	9%	13.1 yr
D	26,868	2,700	₦3.6bn	₦3.6bn	9%	13.6 yr
C	25,821	2,166	₦4.15bn	₦4.1bn	11%	9.1 yr
B	9,669	1,624	₦1.85bn	₦1.84bn	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	88,739	8,970	₦10.2bn	₦10.2bn	9%	9.9 yr
Anchor	331	266	₦1.39bn	₦1.38bn	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	186	148	₦187m	₦187m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	18	15	₦1.69m	₦1.69m	59%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	7	7	₦1.02m	₦1.02m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	6	4	₦5.4m	₦5.4m	77%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	45,402	4,036	₦382m	₦382m	5%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	27,178	2,898	₦946m	₦946m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	13,368	1,685	₦2.32bn	₦2.32bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,948	638	₦2.48bn	₦2.44bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	369	136	₦3.7bn	₦3.68bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	22	17	₦1.97bn	₦1.97bn	69%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	60,043	8,186	₦9.89bn	₦9.84bn	9%	13.1 yr
Dense Urban	21,412	1,164	₦1.16bn	₦1.15bn	13%	7.4 yr
Unclassified	6,252	46	₦677m	₦669m	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	1,580	14	₦76.5m	₦76.5m	9%	13.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	52,842	5,170	₦395m	₦395m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	19,003	2,712	₦3.07bn	₦3.07bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	7,528	0	₦51.4m	₦51.4m	9%	8.9 yr
Residential	6,039	1,088	₦6.68bn	₦6.62bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,325	0	₦22.4m	₦22.4m	15%	6.6 yr
Institutional	175	139	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	134	107	₦93.1m	₦93.1m	85%	1.1 yr
School	119	94	₦48.1m	₦48.1m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	29	23	₦99.1m	₦99.1m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	22	19	₦115m	₦107m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospital	22	18	₦45m	₦45m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	15	15	₦22.8m	₦22.8m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	89,287	9,410	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	88,936	9,126	₦10.4bn	₦10.3bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	336	269	₦1.4bn	₦1.39bn	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	15	15	₦22.8m	₦22.8m	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	52,832	5,178	₦395m	₦395m
2.0	17,948	2,104	₦2.53bn	₦2.49bn
3.0	8,742	1,416	₦8.18bn	₦8.16bn
1.0	6,727	712	₦653m	₦653m
4.0	3,038	0	₦42.3m	₦42.3m