Kano State

Rooftop solar in Bebeji, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Bebeji has 101,694 buildings with a viable rooftop and 798 MWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦31.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

101,694

Usable roof area

3.61 km²

798 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦31.9bn/yr

26.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bebeji

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦31.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦31.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.65tn

NPV₦253bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy23.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity121 MWp

Capex₦129bn

Year-one energy value₦131bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.19tn

NPV₦1.06tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bebeji's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 121 MWp
Capital cost: ₦129bn
Year 1 savings: ₦131bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.06tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bebeji pays back quickly

Of the 100,907 buildings in Bebeji with a modelled payback, 43.2% pay back inside five years and 14.5% inside three.

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How much of Bebeji's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bebeji consume 55.5 GWh/yr but want 79.1 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bebeji

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bebeji actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 100,907 buildings with a modelled result out of 101,694 in Bebeji. 58,974 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,582 (14%)

Under 5 years43,592 (43%)

Under 7 years59,130 (59%)

Under 10 years70,805 (70%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%67,390 (66%)

Above 15%58,974 (58%)

Above 20%47,473 (47%)

Above 25%38,938 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

57.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

439k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bebeji.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bebeji

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	32,582	3,930	₦6.41bn	₦6.37bn	21%	5.4 yr
C	20,200	2,328	₦11.4bn	₦10.7bn	15%	7.1 yr
D	19,060	2,265	₦3.26bn	₦3.26bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	17,013	1,709	₦3.27bn	₦3.25bn	9%	13.1 yr
A	12,839	4,055	₦7.59bn	₦7.57bn	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	99,452	13,121	₦23.5bn	₦22.7bn	19%	5.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,109	539	₦56.5m	₦56.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	665	350	₦584m	₦584m	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	380	239	₦7.75bn	₦7.75bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	67	32	₦21.4m	₦21.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	21	6	₦11.8m	₦11.8m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	44,873	5,055	₦423m	₦421m	7%	13.9 yr
30 50m2	28,070	3,643	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	19%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	20,942	3,342	₦4.03bn	₦3.95bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	6,786	1,720	₦5.88bn	₦5.84bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	899	427	₦8.99bn	₦8.3bn	33%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	124	100	₦11.6bn	₦11.6bn	91%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	47,888	7,449	₦17.9bn	₦17.1bn	17%	6.1 yr
Dense Urban	31,564	5,843	₦3.58bn	₦3.58bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	13,231	638	₦9.97bn	₦9.96bn	7%	14.4 yr
Rural	9,011	357	₦444m	₦444m	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	50,203	5,771	₦489m	₦489m	9%	13.4 yr
Residential Small	22,734	4,744	₦4.81bn	₦4.72bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	12,271	0	₦129m	₦129m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential	9,457	2,587	₦17.9bn	₦17.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,744	19	₦217m	₦214m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,109	539	₦56.5m	₦56.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	286	170	₦186m	₦186m	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	210	127	₦7.09bn	₦7.09bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	180	65	₦224m	₦224m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	139	94	₦90.3m	₦90.3m	73%	1.4 yr
School	99	63	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospital	52	29	₦92.4m	₦92.4m	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	101,638	14,272	₦31.9bn	₦31.1bn
Industrial	56	15	₦17.1m	₦17.1m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	100,838	13,809	₦23.8bn	₦23bn	19%	5.9 yr
SME High	466	235	₦409m	₦409m	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	390	243	₦7.75bn	₦7.75bn	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	50,212	5,777	₦490m	₦490m
2.0	18,223	3,254	₦4.06bn	₦4bn
3.0	13,410	3,608	₦25.3bn	₦24.6bn
4.0	11,009	50	₦661m	₦661m
1.0	8,820	1,596	₦1.27bn	₦1.23bn
5.0	15	1	₦34.8m	₦34.8m
6.0	5	1	₦97.2m	₦97.2m