Kano State

Rooftop solar in Tarauni, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Tarauni has 98,861 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.19 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦22bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

98,861

Usable roof area

5.36 km²

1.19 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦22bn/yr

10.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tarauni

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦22bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.27tn

NPV₦163bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy36.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity126 MWp

Capex₦122bn

Year-one energy value₦62.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.91tn

NPV₦440bn

Median IRR61%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Tarauni's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 126 MWp
Capital cost: ₦122bn
Year 1 savings: ₦62.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦440bn
Median IRR: 61%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tarauni pays back quickly

Of the 96,834 buildings in Tarauni with a modelled payback, 52.4% pay back inside five years and 7.3% inside three.

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How much of Tarauni's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tarauni consume 76.2 GWh/yr but want 112 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tarauni

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tarauni actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 96,834 buildings with a modelled result out of 98,861 in Tarauni. 74,069 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,036 (7%)

Under 5 years50,767 (52%)

Under 7 years74,130 (77%)

Under 10 years87,729 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%86,211 (87%)

Above 15%74,069 (75%)

Above 20%57,094 (58%)

Above 25%39,846 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

53.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.25 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

36.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

158k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tarauni.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tarauni

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	98,861	7,543	₦22bn	₦21.5bn	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	89,932	6,618	₦7.86bn	₦7.8bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial Retail	4,445	216	₦390m	₦390m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	3,242	355	₦6.09bn	₦6.04bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	1,014	301	₦7.09bn	₦6.69bn	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	74	13	₦283m	₦280m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	62	11	₦22.3m	₦22.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	38	14	₦256m	₦255m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	22	4	₦21.4m	₦21.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	20	6	₦21.6m	₦21.6m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	8	4	₦7.8m	₦7.8m	35%	2.9 yr
Automotive	4	1	₦2.95m	₦2.95m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	30,645	1,670	₦451m	₦438m	17%	6.4 yr
30 50m2	25,291	1,049	₦575m	₦575m	21%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	25,054	1,685	₦1.51bn	₦1.49bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	14,655	2,342	₦5.32bn	₦5.3bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,122	754	₦8.92bn	₦8.85bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	94	43	₦5.27bn	₦4.89bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	97,871	7,401	₦20.6bn	₦20.1bn	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	990	142	₦1.48bn	₦1.46bn	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	67,341	3,856	₦4.54bn	₦4.48bn	21%	5.1 yr
Shed	11,376	250	₦99.4m	₦99.4m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	6,782	1,852	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,439	214	₦387m	₦387m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Small	3,002	174	₦182m	₦180m	15%	6.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,578	168	₦3.3bn	₦3.26bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,067	52	₦1.49bn	₦1.48bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential	1,026	122	₦805m	₦802m	29%	3.9 yr
School	624	164	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	45%	2.4 yr
Apartment	273	243	₦282m	₦282m	41%	2.6 yr
Unknown	253	57	₦506m	₦506m	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	202	34	₦939m	₦939m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	98,631	7,520	₦21.6bn	₦21.1bn
Retail	115	0	₦4.84m	₦4.84m
Industrial	104	23	₦416m	₦416m
Commercial	11	0	₦1.21m	₦1.21m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	95,114	6,990	₦9.81bn	₦9.75bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	2,734	252	₦5.14bn	₦5.09bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,013	301	₦7.09bn	₦6.69bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	29,628	1,800	₦3.14bn	₦3.13bn
2.0	28,747	1,345	₦748m	₦722m
4.0	24,073	3,688	₦14.1bn	₦13.7bn
1.0	10,450	461	₦161m	₦159m
0.0	4,455	130	₦41.6m	₦41.6m
5.0	1,332	87	₦2.39bn	₦2.35bn
6.0	176	32	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn