Kano State

Rooftop solar in Tsanyawa, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Tsanyawa has 72,164 buildings with a viable rooftop and 305 MWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.37bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

72,164

Usable roof area

1.4 km²

305 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.37bn/yr

6.34 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tsanyawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.37bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.25bn

Lifetime cash saved₦441bn

NPV₦68.4bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy10.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity55.7 MWp

Capex₦60.7bn

Year-one energy value₦73.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.41tn

NPV₦603bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Tsanyawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 55.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦60.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦73.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦603bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tsanyawa pays back quickly

Of the 71,931 buildings in Tsanyawa with a modelled payback, 29.4% pay back inside five years and 16.2% inside three.

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How much of Tsanyawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tsanyawa consume 14.4 GWh/yr but want 24.6 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tsanyawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tsanyawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 71,931 buildings with a modelled result out of 72,164 in Tsanyawa. 24,958 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,634 (16%)

Under 5 years21,179 (29%)

Under 7 years25,023 (35%)

Under 10 years31,708 (44%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,803 (40%)

Above 15%24,958 (35%)

Above 20%22,015 (31%)

Above 25%19,827 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

17.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.09 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

311k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tsanyawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tsanyawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	24,606	3,413	₦2.47bn	₦2.43bn	7%	14.6 yr
E	23,490	5,744	₦3.41bn	₦3.4bn	9%	13.4 yr
C	19,300	2,328	₦2.3bn	₦2.23bn	7%	14.6 yr
B	4,768	35	₦187m	₦187m	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	71,503	10,999	₦7.69bn	₦7.56bn	7%	13.9 yr
Anchor	339	313	₦430m	₦430m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	271	175	₦244m	₦244m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	30	27	₦8.68m	₦8.68m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	11	6	₦2.81m	₦2.81m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	10	0	₦326k	₦326k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,273	6,709	₦809m	₦809m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	15,734	2,796	₦1.35bn	₦1.33bn	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	6,693	1,530	₦3.41bn	₦3.31bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,350	433	₦1.91bn	₦1.9bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	111	50	₦711m	₦705m	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	3	2	₦191m	₦191m	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	55,957	10,851	₦7.45bn	₦7.33bn	7%	13.9 yr
Unclassified	9,059	62	₦322m	₦322m	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,367	596	₦580m	₦580m	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	781	11	₦16.8m	₦16.8m	7%	14.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	51,101	5,372	₦405m	₦405m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	12,505	2,311	₦4.33bn	₦4.22bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	7,897	3,316	₦2.95bn	₦2.93bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	171	158	₦332m	₦332m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	135	125	₦91.4m	₦91.4m	91%	1.1 yr
School	121	112	₦75.9m	₦75.9m	91%	1.1 yr
Commercial	101	22	₦42.9m	₦42.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospital	31	29	₦34m	₦34m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	29	27	₦88.1m	₦88.1m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	22	19	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	10	9	₦1.97m	₦1.97m	69%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	10	0	₦326k	₦326k	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	72,164	11,520	₦8.37bn	₦8.25bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	71,722	11,184	₦7.9bn	₦7.77bn	7%	13.9 yr
Enterprise	341	314	₦430m	₦430m	87%	1.1 yr
SME High	101	22	₦42.9m	₦42.9m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	51,110	5,382	₦406m	₦406m
2.0	10,763	3,354	₦3.3bn	₦3.25bn
1.0	5,701	1,687	₦1.38bn	₦1.31bn
3.0	4,582	1,096	₦3.28bn	₦3.27bn
4.0	7	1	₦4.84m	₦4.84m
5.0	1	0	₦2.01m	₦2.01m