Kano State

Rooftop solar in Kabo, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Kabo has 66,552 buildings with a viable rooftop and 431 MWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

66,552

Usable roof area

1.96 km²

431 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.1bn/yr

13.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kabo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17bn

Lifetime cash saved₦906bn

NPV₦144bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy18.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity89.7 MWp

Capex₦96.8bn

Year-one energy value₦113bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.3tn

NPV₦928bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kabo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 89.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦96.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦113bn/yr
NPV: ₦928bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kabo pays back quickly

Of the 66,043 buildings in Kabo with a modelled payback, 44.6% pay back inside five years and 22.2% inside three.

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How much of Kabo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kabo consume 27.3 GWh/yr but want 45.9 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kabo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kabo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 66,043 buildings with a modelled result out of 66,552 in Kabo. 34,514 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,655 (22%)

Under 5 years29,453 (45%)

Under 7 years34,575 (52%)

Under 10 years42,258 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%39,547 (59%)

Above 15%34,514 (52%)

Above 20%30,647 (46%)

Above 25%28,055 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

34.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.84 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

433k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kabo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kabo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	18,215	4,607	₦5.59bn	₦5.57bn	9%	9.6 yr
E	15,952	3,898	₦4.17bn	₦4.15bn	9%	9.6 yr
C	15,832	3,393	₦4.12bn	₦4.12bn	17%	6.4 yr
B	15,405	1,676	₦2.91bn	₦2.91bn	19%	5.6 yr
A	1,148	1,059	₦301m	₦301m	59%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	65,892	14,133	₦15.7bn	₦15.7bn	17%	6.4 yr
Anchor	317	250	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	203	145	₦290m	₦290m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	126	96	₦20.8m	₦20.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	13	9	₦10.1m	₦10.1m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1	0	₦67.6k	₦67.6k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	33,065	6,075	₦673m	₦673m	7%	14.4 yr
30 50m2	17,217	3,784	₦1.81bn	₦1.81bn	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	12,573	3,517	₦6.98bn	₦6.94bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,365	1,115	₦4.77bn	₦4.77bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	319	136	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	13	6	₦725m	₦725m	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	44,857	10,344	₦12.4bn	₦12.4bn	11%	8.9 yr
Dense Urban	18,229	4,243	₦4.34bn	₦4.34bn	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	3,466	46	₦325m	₦325m	5%	16.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	37,409	6,122	₦438m	₦438m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	17,242	5,391	₦8.71bn	₦8.67bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	6,650	2,620	₦6.54bn	₦6.54bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,591	0	₦59.5m	₦59.5m	15%	6.9 yr
Institutional	208	164	₦591m	₦591m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	126	107	₦106m	₦106m	89%	1.1 yr
School	100	81	₦60.1m	₦60.1m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	42	32	₦5.62m	₦5.62m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	42	32	₦4.06m	₦4.06m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	37	27	₦291m	₦291m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospital	28	17	₦123m	₦123m	49%	1.9 yr
Clinic	21	16	₦60.4m	₦60.4m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	66,549	14,633	₦17.1bn	₦17bn
Farmland	3	0	₦8.68k	₦8.68k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	66,206	14,369	₦16bn	₦15.9bn	17%	6.4 yr
Enterprise	330	259	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	16	5	₦89.3m	₦89.3m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	37,393	6,140	₦439m	₦439m
2.0	14,312	4,237	₦5.83bn	₦5.8bn
3.0	7,698	2,538	₦8.57bn	₦8.57bn
1.0	6,568	1,717	₦2.09bn	₦2.08bn
4.0	580	0	₦106m	₦106m
5.0	1	1	₦55.5m	₦55.5m