Kano State

Rooftop solar in Kibiya, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Kibiya has 69,135 buildings with a viable rooftop and 364 MWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

69,135

Usable roof area

1.67 km²

364 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10bn/yr

8.49 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kibiya

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.87bn

Lifetime cash saved₦519bn

NPV₦82bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy10.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity53.4 MWp

Capex₦58bn

Year-one energy value₦66.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.14tn

NPV₦549bn

Median IRR113%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kibiya's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 53.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦58bn
Year 1 savings: ₦66.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦549bn
Median IRR: 113%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kibiya pays back quickly

Of the 68,901 buildings in Kibiya with a modelled payback, 34.8% pay back inside five years and 21.5% inside three.

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How much of Kibiya's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kibiya consume 15.8 GWh/yr but want 26.2 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kibiya

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kibiya actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 68,901 buildings with a modelled result out of 69,135 in Kibiya. 27,819 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,801 (21%)

Under 5 years24,005 (35%)

Under 7 years27,892 (40%)

Under 10 years37,236 (54%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%33,051 (48%)

Above 15%27,819 (40%)

Above 20%24,762 (36%)

Above 25%22,583 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

19.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.04 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

250k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kibiya.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kibiya

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	24,268	6,279	₦3.48bn	₦3.37bn	13%	7.9 yr
E	23,632	5,185	₦3.49bn	₦3.48bn	9%	9.9 yr
D	21,235	3,406	₦3.03bn	₦3.02bn	9%	9.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	68,632	14,422	₦8.31bn	₦8.18bn	9%	9.6 yr
Anchor	280	253	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	135	122	₦169m	₦169m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	51	41	₦11.3m	₦11.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	28	23	₦4.9m	₦4.9m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	4	4	₦6.42m	₦6.42m	79%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	3	3	₦2.17m	₦2.17m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦403k	₦403k	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	37,608	7,236	₦579m	₦579m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	21,917	4,810	₦1.55bn	₦1.53bn	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	7,519	2,006	₦2.93bn	₦2.84bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,777	671	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	274	120	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	40	27	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	49,612	10,620	₦7.89bn	₦7.85bn	9%	13.1 yr
Dense Urban	14,508	4,145	₦1.75bn	₦1.66bn	19%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	4,777	105	₦351m	₦351m	7%	15.1 yr
Rural	238	0	₦4.18m	₦4.18m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	45,892	8,364	₦516m	₦516m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	9,760	3,050	₦4bn	₦3.87bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	8,364	2,990	₦3.72bn	₦3.72bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,616	18	₦71.5m	₦71.5m	19%	5.6 yr
Institutional	155	139	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	103	90	₦102m	₦102m	91%	1.1 yr
School	92	81	₦50.8m	₦50.8m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	27	25	₦178m	₦178m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	26	25	₦188m	₦188m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	25	20	₦4.17m	₦4.17m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	23	19	₦2.2m	₦2.2m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospital	21	21	₦23.4m	₦23.4m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	69,132	14,870	₦10bn	₦9.87bn
Farmland	3	0	₦607k	₦607k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	68,849	14,611	₦8.49bn	₦8.36bn	9%	9.6 yr
Enterprise	282	255	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	83%	1.4 yr
SME High	4	4	₦1.71m	₦1.71m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	45,571	8,370	₦515m	₦515m
2.0	12,346	3,505	₦3.17bn	₦3.16bn
1.0	6,291	1,623	₦1.26bn	₦1.23bn
3.0	4,465	1,350	₦4.93bn	₦4.84bn
4.0	462	22	₦116m	₦116m