Kano State

Rooftop solar in Rano, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Rano has 83,588 buildings with a viable rooftop and 503 MWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

83,588

Usable roof area

2.3 km²

503 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.3bn/yr

8.33 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.9 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Rano

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11bn

Lifetime cash saved₦593bn

NPV₦90.8bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.9 yr

Unlocked energy12.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity68.3 MWp

Capex₦74.2bn

Year-one energy value₦83.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.93tn

NPV₦686bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Rano's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 68.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦74.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦83.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦686bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Rano pays back quickly

Of the 81,431 buildings in Rano with a modelled payback, 33.5% pay back inside five years and 13.9% inside three.

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How much of Rano's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Rano consume 19.6 GWh/yr but want 32.3 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Rano

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Rano actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 81,431 buildings with a modelled result out of 83,588 in Rano. 36,054 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,357 (14%)

Under 5 years27,282 (34%)

Under 7 years36,168 (44%)

Under 10 years46,065 (57%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,618 (51%)

Above 15%36,054 (43%)

Above 20%29,243 (35%)

Above 25%24,655 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

22.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.42 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

376k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Rano.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Rano

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	21,412	2,182	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	9%	9.4 yr
E	20,379	2,955	₦2.42bn	₦2.36bn	9%	13.4 yr
D	19,621	3,869	₦3.74bn	₦3.49bn	9%	13.6 yr
B	17,730	2,291	₦2.29bn	₦2.29bn	19%	5.4 yr
A	4,446	24	₦219m	₦216m	5%	14.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	82,941	10,925	₦10.5bn	₦10.2bn	11%	8.9 yr
Anchor	345	205	₦500m	₦500m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	225	132	₦172m	₦172m	53%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	30	28	₦4.3m	₦4.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	19	12	₦110m	₦110m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	13	5	₦795k	₦795k	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	8	8	₦1.07m	₦1.07m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	4	3	₦2.05m	₦2.05m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦756k	₦756k	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	44,867	5,785	₦561m	₦486m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	22,882	3,165	₦1.12bn	₦1.1bn	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	11,484	1,549	₦2.78bn	₦2.73bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,863	662	₦3.11bn	₦2.93bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	467	150	₦3.05bn	₦3.05bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	25	10	₦662m	₦662m	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	44,890	8,019	₦7.7bn	₦7.38bn	9%	12.9 yr
Urban Centre	16,157	1,710	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	19%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	14,928	1,189	₦789m	₦789m	13%	7.6 yr
Unclassified	6,208	76	₦780m	₦780m	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	1,405	327	₦233m	₦233m	21%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	46,952	6,985	₦446m	₦446m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Small	12,064	2,675	₦3.68bn	₦3.61bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	9,521	1,263	₦6.2bn	₦5.95bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Formal	8,380	2	₦75.2m	₦75.2m	15%	7.1 yr
Residential Informal	5,994	0	₦90.7m	₦90.7m	9%	7.6 yr
Institutional	175	108	₦265m	₦265m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	144	89	₦73.7m	₦73.7m	79%	1.4 yr
School	127	82	₦35.2m	₦35.2m	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial	41	20	₦41.1m	₦41.1m	39%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	40	30	₦3.67m	₦3.67m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospital	31	7	₦79.3m	₦79.3m	33%	3.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	21	13	₦69.3m	₦69.3m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	83,588	11,321	₦11.3bn	₦11bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	83,185	11,084	₦10.6bn	₦10.3bn	11%	8.9 yr
Enterprise	358	213	₦608m	₦608m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	45	24	₦42.3m	₦42.3m	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	46,982	7,014	₦448m	₦448m
2.0	13,439	1,977	₦2.96bn	₦2.81bn
3.0	8,541	1,472	₦6.4bn	₦6.35bn
4.0	8,103	7	₦252m	₦252m
1.0	6,523	851	₦1.22bn	₦1.09bn