Kano State

Rooftop solar in Gabasawa, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Gabasawa has 96,380 buildings with a viable rooftop and 424 MWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

96,380

Usable roof area

1.94 km²

424 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.8bn/yr

9.79 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gabasawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦597bn

NPV₦93bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy10.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity64.4 MWp

Capex₦70.3bn

Year-one energy value₦81.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.83tn

NPV₦670bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Gabasawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 64.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦70.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦81.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦670bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gabasawa pays back quickly

Of the 96,079 buildings in Gabasawa with a modelled payback, 28.5% pay back inside five years and 14.1% inside three.

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How much of Gabasawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gabasawa consume 19 GWh/yr but want 29.9 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gabasawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gabasawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 96,079 buildings with a modelled result out of 96,380 in Gabasawa. 33,138 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,500 (14%)

Under 5 years27,366 (28%)

Under 7 years33,232 (35%)

Under 10 years42,092 (44%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%38,588 (40%)

Above 15%33,138 (34%)

Above 20%28,528 (30%)

Above 25%25,398 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

22.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.76 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

354k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gabasawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gabasawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	38,084	5,146	₦3.17bn	₦3.17bn	7%	14.4 yr
C	34,799	5,468	₦5.56bn	₦5.5bn	9%	9.4 yr
E	23,461	2,847	₦3.07bn	₦2.73bn	7%	14.6 yr
B	36	0	₦420k	₦420k	7%	14.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	95,177	12,540	₦10.1bn	₦9.7bn	7%	13.9 yr
Commercial Retail	412	334	₦49.4m	₦49.4m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	351	246	₦833m	₦830m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	308	246	₦796m	₦796m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	84	61	₦12.4m	₦12.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	30	22	₦3.47m	₦3.47m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	7	5	₦2.19m	₦2.19m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	7	4	₦3.16m	₦3.16m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	4	3	₦1.05m	₦1.05m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	62,942	7,076	₦643m	₦642m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	22,265	3,497	₦1.22bn	₦1.2bn	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	9,039	2,045	₦2.79bn	₦2.67bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,931	737	₦4.2bn	₦3.96bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	196	100	₦2.35bn	₦2.35bn	51%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	7	6	₦584m	₦580m	97%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	61,936	8,585	₦6.67bn	₦6.28bn	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	18,578	4,654	₦2.89bn	₦2.89bn	21%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	10,892	127	₦1.16bn	₦1.15bn	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	4,974	95	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	9%	13.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	65,799	6,708	₦475m	₦475m	7%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	16,581	4,234	₦3.84bn	₦3.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	10,717	1,570	₦5.67bn	₦5.42bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,080	28	₦108m	₦108m	23%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	438	354	₦52.4m	₦52.4m	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	161	126	₦333m	₦333m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	142	96	₦116m	₦116m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	113	92	₦123m	₦123m	87%	1.1 yr
School	105	82	₦42.2m	₦42.2m	83%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	42	31	₦3.25m	₦3.25m	61%	1.6 yr
Market	39	12	₦2.83m	₦2.83m	31%	3.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	31	25	₦298m	₦298m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	96,204	13,457	₦11.8bn	₦11.4bn
Farmland	176	4	₦11.3m	₦11.3m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	95,897	13,087	₦10.3bn	₦9.95bn	7%	13.9 yr
Enterprise	310	249	₦799m	₦799m	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	173	125	₦653m	₦650m	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	65,834	6,736	₦478m	₦478m
2.0	14,738	2,890	₦3.28bn	₦3.02bn
1.0	9,258	1,593	₦1.07bn	₦959m
3.0	6,358	2,215	₦6.38bn	₦6.36bn
4.0	190	25	₦291m	₦291m
5.0	2	2	₦292m	₦289m