Kano State

Rooftop solar in Fagge, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Fagge has 101,992 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.27 GWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦24.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

101,992

Usable roof area

5.7 km²

1.27 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦24.4bn/yr

9.28 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Fagge

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦24.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.53tn

NPV₦203bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy54.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity160 MWp

Capex₦157bn

Year-one energy value₦94.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.41tn

NPV₦693bn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Fagge's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 160 MWp
Capital cost: ₦157bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦693bn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Fagge pays back quickly

Of the 100,040 buildings in Fagge with a modelled payback, 43.8% pay back inside five years and 11.6% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Fagge's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Fagge consume 87.9 GWh/yr but want 142 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Fagge

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Fagge actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 100,040 buildings with a modelled result out of 101,992 in Fagge. 68,434 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,647 (12%)

Under 5 years43,819 (44%)

Under 7 years68,774 (69%)

Under 10 years86,980 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%84,524 (83%)

Above 15%68,434 (67%)

Above 20%49,218 (48%)

Above 25%35,606 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

67.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.32 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

54.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

191k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Fagge.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Fagge

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	101,931	9,647	₦24.4bn	₦24.1bn	19%	5.4 yr
B	61	13	₦3.16m	₦3.16m	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	96,115	8,963	₦9.6bn	₦9.48bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial General	3,111	378	₦8.24bn	₦8.21bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,799	136	₦320m	₦320m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	535	112	₦5.41bn	₦5.33bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	196	35	₦81m	₦81m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	109	12	₦375m	₦375m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	77	19	₦284m	₦284m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	19	0	₦15.8m	₦15.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	12	1	₦14.6m	₦14.6m	39%	2.9 yr
Industrial	10	1	₦26.5m	₦26.5m	41%	2.6 yr
Automotive	9	3	₦9.74m	₦9.74m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	41,440	2,884	₦457m	₦413m	13%	7.9 yr
30 50m2	23,354	1,546	₦435m	₦435m	19%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	19,801	1,823	₦952m	₦952m	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	12,697	2,316	₦4.11bn	₦4.11bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	4,456	1,025	₦10.2bn	₦10.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	244	66	₦8.18bn	₦8.02bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	100,492	9,523	₦21.6bn	₦21.4bn	19%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	1,500	137	₦2.77bn	₦2.71bn	31%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	61,340	2,899	₦6.37bn	₦6.3bn	19%	5.6 yr
Shed	19,233	2,164	₦209m	₦209m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Small	6,821	2,119	₦403m	₦359m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,649	90	₦70.8m	₦70.8m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential	2,976	1,684	₦2.54bn	₦2.54bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,772	113	₦143m	₦143m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,043	131	₦3.44bn	₦3.43bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial	858	69	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unknown	355	48	₦1.62bn	₦1.61bn	33%	3.1 yr
Market	315	1	₦21.6m	₦21.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	252	43	₦4.31bn	₦4.28bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	250	69	₦899m	₦899m	39%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	101,849	9,632	₦24.4bn	₦24.1bn
Farmland	139	28	₦9.19m	₦9.19m
Industrial	4	0	₦18.5k	₦18.5k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	99,319	9,277	₦13bn	₦12.9bn	19%	5.6 yr
SME High	2,142	274	₦5.94bn	₦5.92bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	531	109	₦5.39bn	₦5.31bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	29,994	1,824	₦601m	₦557m
3.0	28,222	3,260	₦5.73bn	₦5.65bn
4.0	18,920	1,767	₦12.7bn	₦12.6bn
0.0	14,371	2,159	₦181m	₦181m
1.0	9,204	506	₦74.2m	₦74.2m
5.0	990	92	₦1.86bn	₦1.86bn
6.0	291	52	₦3.24bn	₦3.23bn