Kano State

Rooftop solar in Gaya, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Gaya has 107,284 buildings with a viable rooftop and 535 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

107,284

Usable roof area

2.45 km²

535 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.1bn/yr

9.22 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

12.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gaya

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦563bn

NPV₦85.9bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback12.9 yr

Unlocked energy10.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61.7 MWp

Capex₦67.7bn

Year-one energy value₦75.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.56tn

NPV₦619bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gaya's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦67.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦619bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gaya pays back quickly

Of the 104,197 buildings in Gaya with a modelled payback, 26.9% pay back inside five years and 12.8% inside three.

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How much of Gaya's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gaya consume 18.7 GWh/yr but want 28.9 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gaya

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gaya actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 104,197 buildings with a modelled result out of 107,284 in Gaya. 37,567 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,307 (13%)

Under 5 years28,030 (27%)

Under 7 years37,693 (36%)

Under 10 years51,616 (50%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%47,068 (44%)

Above 15%37,567 (35%)

Above 20%30,171 (28%)

Above 25%24,989 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

20.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.27 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

295k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gaya.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gaya

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	30,194	4,271	₦2.7bn	₦2.7bn	11%	9.1 yr
E	25,915	3,812	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn	7%	14.4 yr
D	24,990	2,816	₦2.51bn	₦2.32bn	7%	14.6 yr
A	17,981	835	₦759m	₦757m	9%	9.4 yr
B	8,204	1,571	₦2.92bn	₦2.71bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	106,363	12,575	₦9.05bn	₦8.86bn	9%	13.1 yr
Anchor	389	295	₦1.58bn	₦1.38bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	265	202	₦369m	₦369m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	186	169	₦30.3m	₦30.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	60	51	₦10m	₦10m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	21	13	₦17.9m	₦17.6m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	65,228	6,526	₦680m	₦673m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	26,054	3,616	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	12,575	2,142	₦2.24bn	₦2.23bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,967	814	₦2.87bn	₦2.72bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	444	195	₦2.62bn	₦2.57bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	16	12	₦1.5bn	₦1.29bn	71%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	64,020	8,447	₦6.41bn	₦6.22bn	9%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	35,004	4,683	₦4.07bn	₦3.87bn	13%	7.6 yr
Unclassified	8,131	175	₦580m	₦578m	5%	16.9 yr
Rural	129	0	₦967k	₦967k	5%	18.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	57,006	4,806	₦404m	₦404m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	16,606	4,495	₦3.07bn	₦3.07bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	15,989	0	₦75.4m	₦75.4m	11%	8.6 yr
Residential	12,747	3,273	₦5.5bn	₦5.31bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Informal	4,000	1	₦9.3m	₦9.3m	3%	13.9 yr
Institutional	258	208	₦768m	₦768m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	164	123	₦149m	₦149m	83%	1.4 yr
School	135	95	₦53.4m	₦53.4m	79%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	63	58	₦7.67m	₦7.67m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	62	56	₦6.88m	₦6.88m	67%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	60	51	₦10m	₦10m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	36	31	₦97.7m	₦97.7m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	107,284	13,305	₦11.1bn	₦10.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	106,844	12,966	₦9.38bn	₦9.18bn	9%	13.1 yr
Enterprise	396	302	₦1.59bn	₦1.39bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	44	37	₦100m	₦100m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	55,152	4,840	₦402m	₦402m
2.0	17,203	4,148	₦2.55bn	₦2.55bn
4.0	12,241	8	₦142m	₦142m
3.0	11,427	2,109	₦6.92bn	₦6.53bn
1.0	11,259	2,200	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn
5.0	2	0	₦3.29m	₦3.29m