Kano State

Rooftop solar in Bagwai, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Bagwai has 90,078 buildings with a viable rooftop and 419 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.53bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

90,078

Usable roof area

1.92 km²

419 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.53bn/yr

7.25 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bagwai

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.53bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.43bn

Lifetime cash saved₦513bn

NPV₦77.3bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.4 yr

Unlocked energy12.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity65.3 MWp

Capex₦71.4bn

Year-one energy value₦80bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.77tn

NPV₦657bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bagwai's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 65.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦71.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦80bn/yr
NPV: ₦657bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bagwai pays back quickly

Of the 89,660 buildings in Bagwai with a modelled payback, 29.9% pay back inside five years and 11.2% inside three.

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How much of Bagwai's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bagwai consume 18.6 GWh/yr but want 30.6 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bagwai

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bagwai actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 89,660 buildings with a modelled result out of 90,078 in Bagwai. 35,919 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,012 (11%)

Under 5 years26,818 (30%)

Under 7 years36,030 (40%)

Under 10 years43,093 (48%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,498 (45%)

Above 15%35,919 (40%)

Above 20%28,745 (32%)

Above 25%24,500 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

20.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.26 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

324k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bagwai.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bagwai

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	26,143	2,123	₦3.11bn	₦3.05bn	7%	14.4 yr
D	26,029	2,381	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	7%	15.4 yr
E	19,664	2,162	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	7%	14.9 yr
B	17,972	3,518	₦2.73bn	₦2.69bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	270	101	₦231m	₦231m	31%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	89,490	9,844	₦7.92bn	₦7.82bn	9%	13.4 yr
Anchor	343	254	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	189	144	₦120m	₦120m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	23	16	₦4.96m	₦4.96m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	16	16	₦2.44m	₦2.44m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	15	11	₦6.45m	₦6.45m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦33.7k	₦33.7k	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦109k	₦109k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	57,483	5,446	₦442m	₦442m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	20,707	2,542	₦929m	₦929m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	9,825	1,630	₦2.68bn	₦2.66bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,827	547	₦2.08bn	₦2.02bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	214	105	₦2.01bn	₦2bn	33%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	22	15	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	74,153	7,865	₦6.57bn	₦6.49bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	10,258	2,304	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	5,667	116	₦1.59bn	₦1.57bn	5%	17.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	64,101	5,053	₦382m	₦382m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	17,413	3,187	₦3.5bn	₦3.48bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	6,643	1,502	₦3.9bn	₦3.82bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,333	102	₦136m	₦136m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	184	140	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	125	94	₦62.8m	₦62.8m	81%	1.4 yr
School	119	87	₦32.3m	₦32.3m	75%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	36	26	₦196m	₦196m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	28	20	₦10.7m	₦10.7m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospital	27	19	₦37m	₦37m	53%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	17	16	₦2.55m	₦2.55m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	15	11	₦6.45m	₦6.45m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	90,035	10,244	₦8.35bn	₦8.28bn
Industrial	41	41	₦1.18bn	₦1.15bn
Farmland	2	0	₦9.75k	₦9.75k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	89,721	10,019	₦8.04bn	₦7.94bn	9%	13.4 yr
Enterprise	349	260	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	8	6	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	64,110	5,062	₦383m	₦383m
2.0	13,391	2,573	₦2.4bn	₦2.4bn
1.0	6,559	1,063	₦842m	₦842m
3.0	5,818	1,571	₦5.82bn	₦5.72bn
4.0	200	16	₦82.2m	₦82.2m