Kano State

Rooftop solar in Warawa, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Warawa has 74,675 buildings with a viable rooftop and 391 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

74,675

Usable roof area

1.78 km²

391 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.9bn/yr

11.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Warawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦669bn

NPV₦102bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.4 yr

Unlocked energy8.38 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity45.8 MWp

Capex₦48.5bn

Year-one energy value₦47.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.24tn

NPV₦383bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Warawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 45.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦48.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦47.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦383bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Warawa pays back quickly

Of the 74,043 buildings in Warawa with a modelled payback, 25.1% pay back inside five years and 10.2% inside three.

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How much of Warawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Warawa consume 22.3 GWh/yr but want 30.7 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Warawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Warawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 74,043 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,675 in Warawa. 25,695 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,563 (10%)

Under 5 years18,575 (25%)

Under 7 years25,798 (35%)

Under 10 years35,360 (48%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,682 (44%)

Above 15%25,695 (34%)

Above 20%20,212 (27%)

Above 25%16,212 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

22.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.98 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.38 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

134k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Warawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Warawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	20,493	1,099	₦1.96bn	₦1.93bn	7%	14.9 yr
D	18,354	1,339	₦788m	₦665m	7%	15.4 yr
B	18,211	1,867	₦9.45bn	₦9.43bn	17%	5.9 yr
E	14,545	404	₦397m	₦397m	7%	15.4 yr
A	3,072	776	₦321m	₦293m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	71,209	4,638	₦8.2bn	₦8.02bn	9%	13.6 yr
Commercial Retail	2,372	358	₦141m	₦141m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	786	274	₦827m	₦827m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	297	208	₦3.73bn	₦3.72bn	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	8	5	₦3.88m	₦3.88m	47%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	3	2	₦8.72m	₦8.72m	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	44,435	2,473	₦297m	₦297m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	19,708	1,318	₦405m	₦405m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	8,320	866	₦1.17bn	₦1.02bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,824	559	₦2.19bn	₦2.19bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	358	241	₦4.72bn	₦4.68bn	75%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	30	28	₦4.14bn	₦4.14bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	59,915	3,683	₦4.7bn	₦4.69bn	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	6,116	818	₦6.93bn	₦6.93bn	17%	6.6 yr
Unclassified	5,035	72	₦607m	₦457m	5%	15.9 yr
Urban Centre	3,609	912	₦680m	₦645m	37%	2.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	49,828	2,356	₦240m	₦240m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	14,350	1,090	₦1.3bn	₦1.15bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	7,031	1,192	₦6.66bn	₦6.63bn	17%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,372	358	₦141m	₦141m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	459	80	₦470m	₦470m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	160	80	₦182m	₦182m	39%	2.6 yr
Institutional	152	108	₦3.16bn	₦3.16bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	123	86	₦72.6m	₦72.6m	77%	1.4 yr
School	110	72	₦44m	₦44m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	20	13	₦337m	₦333m	47%	1.9 yr
Hospital	17	15	₦213m	₦207m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	14	9	₦13.8m	₦13.8m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	74,675	5,485	₦12.9bn	₦12.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	73,752	5,110	₦8.52bn	₦8.34bn	9%	13.4 yr
SME High	622	162	₦660m	₦660m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	301	213	₦3.73bn	₦3.72bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	49,846	2,362	₦239m	₦239m
2.0	13,610	1,252	₦1.21bn	₦1.19bn
3.0	5,421	1,088	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn
1.0	5,416	749	₦403m	₦280m
5.0	230	6	₦231m	₦231m
4.0	136	28	₦252m	₦252m
6.0	16	0	₦68.4m	₦68.4m