Kano State

Rooftop solar in Albasu, Kano: what the roofs are worth

Albasu has 83,158 buildings with a viable rooftop and 422 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.58bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

83,158

Usable roof area

1.94 km²

422 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.58bn/yr

4.58 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Albasu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.58bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.56bn

Lifetime cash saved₦367bn

NPV₦53.1bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy9.35 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.6 MWp

Capex₦63bn

Year-one energy value₦70.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.35tn

NPV₦583bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Albasu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦583bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Albasu pays back quickly

Of the 82,883 buildings in Albasu with a modelled payback, 30.5% pay back inside five years and 11.7% inside three.

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How much of Albasu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Albasu consume 13.7 GWh/yr but want 23 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Albasu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Albasu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 82,883 buildings with a modelled result out of 83,158 in Albasu. 34,115 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,720 (12%)

Under 5 years25,240 (30%)

Under 7 years34,181 (41%)

Under 10 years42,915 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%39,661 (48%)

Above 15%34,115 (41%)

Above 20%27,673 (33%)

Above 25%22,572 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

14.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.85 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.35 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

297k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Albasu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Albasu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	26,061	3,472	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	9%	9.6 yr
D	21,401	2,085	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	19,070	1,524	₦1.18bn	₦1.17bn	7%	14.6 yr
B	16,626	2,544	₦1.97bn	₦1.97bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	82,341	8,989	₦5.76bn	₦5.75bn	9%	9.9 yr
Anchor	272	223	₦450m	₦450m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	239	184	₦323m	₦323m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	167	155	₦31.5m	₦31.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	134	70	₦8.99m	₦8.99m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	5	4	₦2.64m	₦2.64m	47%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	47,335	4,193	₦384m	₦384m	7%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	23,628	2,992	₦1.12bn	₦1.11bn	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	9,996	1,788	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,950	566	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	243	84	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	6	2	₦95.2m	₦95.2m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	57,921	7,575	₦5.14bn	₦5.12bn	9%	13.4 yr
Dense Urban	17,890	1,996	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	19%	5.6 yr
Unclassified	6,828	46	₦219m	₦219m	5%	16.6 yr
Rural	519	8	₦9.68m	₦9.68m	7%	14.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	54,411	4,232	₦343m	₦343m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	13,825	2,736	₦2.78bn	₦2.76bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	7,049	1,985	₦2.55bn	₦2.55bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	5,045	35	₦64.5m	₦64.5m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,011	1	₦26m	₦26m	21%	4.9 yr
Institutional	183	155	₦204m	₦204m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	134	70	₦8.99m	₦8.99m	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	110	90	₦67.3m	₦67.3m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial	103	76	₦223m	₦223m	43%	2.4 yr
School	87	64	₦31.1m	₦31.1m	77%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	58	53	₦5.45m	₦5.45m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	55	51	₦5.43m	₦5.43m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	83,158	9,625	₦6.58bn	₦6.56bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	82,780	9,324	₦5.9bn	₦5.89bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	275	225	₦452m	₦452m	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	103	76	₦223m	₦223m	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	54,446	4,267	₦345m	₦345m
2.0	13,076	2,576	₦2.2bn	₦2.19bn
1.0	7,883	1,515	₦1.18bn	₦1.16bn
3.0	5,839	1,250	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn
4.0	1,914	17	₦247m	₦247m