Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Oyo State: buildings, spend and payback

2,417,857 buildings in Oyo State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦1.33tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 27% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,417,857

Usable roof area

234 km²

52.5 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦1.33tn/yr

1.08 TWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oyo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.33tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.28tn

Lifetime cash saved₦69.5tn

NPV₦10.2tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy1.22 TWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity4.95 GWp

Capex₦4.87tn

Year-one energy value₦3.57tn

Lifetime energy value₦168tn

NPV₦27.5tn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Oyo State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 4.95 GWp
Capital cost: ₦4.87tn
Year 1 savings: ₦3.57tn/yr
NPV: ₦27.5tn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oyo State pays back quickly

Of the 2,346,429 buildings in Oyo State with a modelled payback, 62.5% pay back inside five years and 23.1% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

62.5%

Payback under 3 years

23.1%

IRR above 20%

64.5%

Under 3 years · 23%3 – 5 years · 39%5 – 7 years · 13%7 – 10 years · 8%Over 10 years · 16%

Coverage: 97% of buildings in Oyo State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Oyo State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oyo State consume 2.49 TWh/yr but want 3.71 TWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 67%Suppressed · 33%

Energy wanted

3.71 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

2.49 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

1.22 TWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Oyo State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 2,346,429 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,417,857 in Oyo State. 1,784,944 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years541,595 (23%)

Under 5 years1,467,211 (63%)

Under 7 years1,782,520 (76%)

Under 10 years1,965,968 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,939,945 (80%)

Above 15%1,784,944 (74%)

Above 20%1,559,892 (65%)

Above 25%1,077,580 (45%)

Electricity billing bands in Oyo State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oyo State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	638,898	189,442	₦567bn	₦533bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	543,430	137,065	₦149bn	₦147bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	519,082	164,122	₦312bn	₦305bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	499,312	110,569	₦153bn	₦151bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	217,135	41,565	₦152bn	₦149bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,298,362	590,551	₦919bn	₦885bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	60,581	25,621	₦252bn	₦245bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	29,227	11,734	₦5.23bn	₦5.23bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	13,683	7,343	₦131bn	₦126bn	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	6,894	3,311	₦12.7bn	₦12.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	5,711	2,643	₦3.63bn	₦3.63bn	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1,289	542	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	1,194	502	₦5.34bn	₦5.15bn	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	537	392	₦461m	₦461m	61%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	326	104	₦986m	₦985m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	53	20	₦70.5m	₦70.5m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	855,229	253,453	₦553bn	₦539bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	637,712	130,752	₦16.2bn	₦15.4bn	7%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	403,051	107,284	₦66.3bn	₦63.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	270,645	67,056	₦18.2bn	₦16.9bn	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	247,775	82,524	₦528bn	₦508bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	3,445	1,694	₦150bn	₦141bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	1,628,729	432,537	₦657bn	₦646bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	417,060	55,988	₦233bn	₦211bn	7%	13.1 yr
Urban	223,366	81,188	₦229bn	₦224bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	97,661	52,961	₦145bn	₦144bn	45%	2.4 yr
Rural	47,894	19,198	₦63.8bn	₦57.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
(Unset)	3,147	891	₦4.24bn	₦2.64bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	706,196	174,237	₦113bn	₦112bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	409,522	85,862	₦77bn	₦75.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	409,468	69,038	₦8.9bn	₦8.9bn	7%	14.6 yr
Residential	329,500	130,398	₦631bn	₦601bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	308,102	99,882	₦70.5bn	₦67.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	86,179	19,981	₦13.1bn	₦13.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	43,828	10,089	₦6.47bn	₦6.47bn	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	29,525	12,015	₦5.35bn	₦5.35bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	24,569	7,866	₦101bn	₦95.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	20,404	11,139	₦109bn	₦108bn	39%	2.6 yr
Institutional	11,493	6,031	₦104bn	₦102bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unknown	4,840	1,615	₦12.6bn	₦12.5bn	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,413,769	641,536	₦1.32tn	₦1.28tn
Industrial	1,566	416	₦6.55bn	₦6.38bn
Commercial	1,350	395	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn
Farmland	1,032	409	₦1.03bn	₦981m
Farmyard	107	1	₦183m	₦182m
Allotments	16	3	₦4.58m	₦4.58m
Retail	12	0	₦134k	₦134k
Orchard	5	3	₦5.69m	₦5.69m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,350,347	612,439	₦974bn	₦939bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	47,408	19,918	₦216bn	₦209bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	20,102	10,406	₦142bn	₦137bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	941,482	228,197	₦332bn	₦328bn
3.0	644,977	228,524	₦759bn	₦727bn
0.0	399,003	66,015	₦8.35bn	₦8.35bn
2.0	314,891	87,255	₦69.9bn	₦65.4bn
1.0	88,164	21,977	₦8.66bn	₦7.73bn
5.0	22,924	8,206	₦79.3bn	₦76.6bn
6.0	6,416	2,589	₦75.3bn	₦70.8bn