Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Iwajowa, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Iwajowa has 34,105 buildings with a viable rooftop and 493 MWp of roof capacity. 30% run a generator, and together they spend ₦32.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

34,105

Usable roof area

2.2 km²

493 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦32.2bn/yr

30.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Iwajowa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦32.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦30.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.57tn

NPV₦251bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy17.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity80.6 MWp

Capex₦83.9bn

Year-one energy value₦77.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.67tn

NPV₦623bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Iwajowa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 80.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦83.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦77.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦623bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Iwajowa pays back quickly

Of the 32,142 buildings in Iwajowa with a modelled payback, 49.0% pay back inside five years and 32.1% inside three.

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How much of Iwajowa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Iwajowa consume 39 GWh/yr but want 56.6 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Iwajowa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Iwajowa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 32,142 buildings with a modelled result out of 34,105 in Iwajowa. 17,102 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,307 (32%)

Under 5 years15,741 (49%)

Under 7 years17,094 (53%)

Under 10 years18,224 (57%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,957 (53%)

Above 15%17,102 (50%)

Above 20%16,173 (47%)

Above 25%14,768 (43%)

CO₂ avoided

52.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

194k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Iwajowa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Iwajowa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	28,229	7,776	₦24.9bn	₦23.6bn	13%	6.1 yr
D	5,876	2,531	₦7.33bn	₦7.21bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	33,275	9,555	₦26.1bn	₦25.2bn	13%	5.9 yr
Anchor	233	212	₦4.04bn	₦3.53bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	201	180	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	115	103	₦105m	₦105m	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	103	102	₦117m	₦117m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	91	70	₦173m	₦173m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	44	44	₦240m	₦238m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	23	21	₦47.4m	₦47.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	20	20	₦13.7m	₦13.7m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	15,251	1,626	₦343m	₦263m	3%	18.9 yr
100 250m2	6,915	3,966	₦13.1bn	₦13bn	67%	1.6 yr
50 100m2	5,299	2,079	₦1.76bn	₦1.65bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,603	1,332	₦426m	₦425m	9%	9.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,973	1,258	₦13.2bn	₦12.7bn	73%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	64	46	₦3.31bn	₦2.85bn	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	21,134	1,996	₦9.7bn	₦8.61bn	5%	17.1 yr
Urban	5,568	4,156	₦10.4bn	₦10.3bn	71%	1.4 yr
Dense Urban	4,009	2,346	₦8.01bn	₦7.85bn	69%	1.6 yr
Rural	3,394	1,809	₦4.09bn	₦4.09bn	59%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	17,533	1,966	₦278m	₦278m	3%	18.1 yr
Residential Small	7,317	2,938	₦2.3bn	₦2.18bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	6,815	3,874	₦22.1bn	₦21.4bn	73%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	880	109	₦197m	₦197m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	675	665	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	61%	1.9 yr
Institutional	199	170	₦3.3bn	₦2.84bn	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	107	107	₦85.6m	₦85.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	88	88	₦833m	₦833m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	58	51	₦270m	₦270m	83%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	56	41	₦115m	₦115m	71%	1.4 yr
School	53	49	₦199m	₦199m	83%	1.4 yr
Duplex	49	3	₦7.69m	₦7.69m	25%	4.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	34,088	10,307	₦32.2bn	₦30.8bn
Farmyard	17	0	₦20.8k	₦20.8k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	33,682	9,929	₦27.2bn	₦26.3bn	13%	5.6 yr
Enterprise	305	263	₦4.16bn	₦3.64bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	118	115	₦898m	₦898m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	17,236	1,849	₦252m	₦252m
3.0	8,950	5,304	₦27.5bn	₦26.3bn
2.0	5,132	2,296	₦2.26bn	₦2.15bn
1.0	1,683	472	₦306m	₦225m
4.0	1,100	382	₦1.85bn	₦1.8bn
5.0	4	4	₦94.9m	₦94.9m