Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Oyo West, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Oyo West has 99,433 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.29 GWp of roof capacity. 30% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

99,433

Usable roof area

10.2 km²

2.29 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.7bn/yr

11.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oyo West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦901bn

NPV₦118bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy22.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity91.4 MWp

Capex₦84.7bn

Year-one energy value₦48.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.26tn

NPV₦351bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Oyo West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 91.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦84.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦48.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦351bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oyo West pays back quickly

Of the 94,512 buildings in Oyo West with a modelled payback, 55.9% pay back inside five years and 19.0% inside three.

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How much of Oyo West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oyo West consume 43.7 GWh/yr but want 65.8 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oyo West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oyo West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 94,512 buildings with a modelled result out of 99,433 in Oyo West. 71,726 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,976 (19%)

Under 5 years52,874 (56%)

Under 7 years71,583 (76%)

Under 10 years83,760 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%82,318 (83%)

Above 15%71,726 (72%)

Above 20%58,661 (59%)

Above 25%41,341 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

34.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

22.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

75.4k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oyo West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oyo West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	67,987	21,689	₦11.8bn	₦11.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	30,916	7,822	₦3.89bn	₦3.84bn	23%	4.9 yr
C	530	90	₦19.7m	₦19.7m	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	95,800	28,291	₦5.85bn	₦5.85bn	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	1,826	640	₦5.67bn	₦5.65bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	683	236	₦2.93bn	₦2.87bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	418	139	₦928m	₦919m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	354	173	₦77.3m	₦77.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Worship	221	80	₦100m	₦100m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	64	24	₦54.4m	₦54.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	53	17	₦110m	₦110m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	10	0	₦7.71m	₦7.71m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	4	1	₦510k	₦510k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	41,163	12,173	₦6.01bn	₦6.01bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	21,274	6,167	₦435m	₦427m	13%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	15,735	4,266	₦565m	₦565m	17%	6.6 yr
30 50m2	11,317	3,124	₦362m	₦361m	17%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	9,840	3,814	₦6.35bn	₦6.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	104	57	₦1.99bn	₦1.97bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	81,647	25,462	₦14.1bn	₦14.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	9,813	1,815	₦626m	₦618m	17%	6.1 yr
Urban	7,104	2,122	₦750m	₦750m	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	869	202	₦205m	₦202m	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	63,984	20,343	₦4.75bn	₦4.75bn	23%	4.4 yr
Shed	13,719	4,119	₦361m	₦361m	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	8,370	1,585	₦65.7m	₦65.7m	11%	7.9 yr
Residential	6,417	1,703	₦570m	₦570m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Large	3,220	519	₦92.2m	₦92.2m	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	911	361	₦3.94bn	₦3.94bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	584	192	₦2.36bn	₦2.36bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	354	172	₦77.1m	₦77.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Unknown	294	90	₦524m	₦524m	31%	3.6 yr
Industrial Site	247	71	₦451m	₦444m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	241	82	₦353m	₦353m	43%	2.4 yr
School	217	73	₦305m	₦305m	43%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	99,410	29,578	₦15.7bn	₦15.6bn
Farmland	22	22	₦9.11m	₦9.11m
Orchard	1	1	₦20k	₦20k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	97,263	28,815	₦7.64bn	₦7.64bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	1,092	417	₦4.28bn	₦4.26bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,078	369	₦3.8bn	₦3.74bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	42,477	12,124	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn
3.0	23,204	6,925	₦1.82bn	₦1.8bn
2.0	17,312	5,451	₦557m	₦554m
0.0	11,166	3,372	₦304m	₦304m
1.0	4,843	1,600	₦112m	₦112m
5.0	409	126	₦2.16bn	₦2.14bn
6.0	22	3	₦187m	₦187m