Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ibadan North East, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ibadan North East has 59,758 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.36 GWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦24.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

59,758

Usable roof area

6.07 km²

1.36 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦24.9bn/yr

9.48 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibadan North East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦24.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.56tn

NPV₦203bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy54.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity172 MWp

Capex₦170bn

Year-one energy value₦108bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.1tn

NPV₦810bn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ibadan North East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 172 MWp
Capital cost: ₦170bn
Year 1 savings: ₦108bn/yr
NPV: ₦810bn
Median IRR: 73%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibadan North East pays back quickly

Of the 59,550 buildings in Ibadan North East with a modelled payback, 86.5% pay back inside five years and 19.6% inside three.

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How much of Ibadan North East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibadan North East consume 81.8 GWh/yr but want 136 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibadan North East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibadan North East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 59,550 buildings with a modelled result out of 59,758 in Ibadan North East. 56,671 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,690 (20%)

Under 5 years51,530 (87%)

Under 7 years56,681 (95%)

Under 10 years58,425 (98%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%58,243 (97%)

Above 15%56,671 (95%)

Above 20%53,295 (89%)

Above 25%47,823 (80%)

CO₂ avoided

68.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.07 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

54.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

296k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibadan North East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibadan North East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	43,313	8,550	₦17.9bn	₦17.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
A	15,810	1,301	₦6.14bn	₦6.09bn	29%	3.9 yr
C	635	357	₦945m	₦945m	37%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	53,611	9,363	₦17.1bn	₦16.9bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	3,632	411	₦5.99bn	₦5.94bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,519	155	₦147m	₦147m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	527	161	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	292	72	₦138m	₦138m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	60	15	₦77.9m	₦77.8m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	55	15	₦50.3m	₦50.3m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	34	8	₦115m	₦115m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	22	8	₦25.8m	₦25.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	6	0	₦5.98m	₦5.98m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	26,160	3,879	₦12.2bn	₦12.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	12,047	2,284	₦463m	₦406m	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	10,018	1,517	₦1.22bn	₦1.19bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	5,969	1,101	₦466m	₦423m	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	5,522	1,417	₦9.93bn	₦9.91bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	42	10	₦671m	₦669m	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	59,286	10,100	₦24.5bn	₦24.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	472	108	₦400m	₦269m	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	28,546	6,119	₦10.2bn	₦10.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	15,851	1,818	₦3.5bn	₦3.45bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	2,494	330	₦2.2bn	₦2.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,195	177	₦3.2bn	₦3.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Small	2,003	341	₦278m	₦230m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,852	263	₦531m	₦531m	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	1,752	304	₦39.7m	₦39.7m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,520	155	₦151m	₦151m	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	1,111	188	₦356m	₦356m	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial	765	54	₦1.84bn	₦1.83bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	332	103	₦544m	₦544m	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	275	64	₦330m	₦330m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	59,704	10,190	₦24.9bn	₦24.7bn
Commercial	54	18	₦67.8m	₦67.8m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	56,105	9,768	₦18.4bn	₦18.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	3,067	264	₦5.19bn	₦5.18bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	586	176	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	35,844	5,351	₦15.3bn	₦15.2bn
3.0	10,932	2,424	₦4.27bn	₦4.2bn
2.0	7,883	1,767	₦716m	₦667m
5.0	1,950	90	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn
1.0	1,618	316	₦57.8m	₦56m
0.0	1,057	227	₦29.4m	₦29.4m
6.0	474	33	₦2.08bn	₦2.08bn