Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Saki West, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Saki West has 127,244 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.39 GWp of roof capacity. 40% run a generator, and together they spend ₦102bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

127,244

Usable roof area

10.7 km²

2.39 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦102bn/yr

88.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Saki West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦102bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦99.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦5.14tn

NPV₦807bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy48.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity226 MWp

Capex₦237bn

Year-one energy value₦212bn

Lifetime energy value₦10tn

NPV₦1.69tn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Saki West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 226 MWp
Capital cost: ₦237bn
Year 1 savings: ₦212bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.69tn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Saki West pays back quickly

Of the 123,164 buildings in Saki West with a modelled payback, 61.5% pay back inside five years and 39.1% inside three.

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How much of Saki West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Saki West consume 129 GWh/yr but want 177 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Saki West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Saki West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 123,164 buildings with a modelled result out of 127,244 in Saki West. 84,373 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years48,165 (39%)

Under 5 years75,757 (62%)

Under 7 years84,342 (68%)

Under 10 years91,203 (74%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%89,872 (71%)

Above 15%84,373 (66%)

Above 20%78,241 (61%)

Above 25%70,765 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

171 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

57.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

48.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

472k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Saki West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Saki West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	62,023	27,952	₦42.2bn	₦41.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	60,240	21,982	₦58.2bn	₦57.2bn	23%	4.4 yr
C	4,981	1,419	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	124,886	49,882	₦91.7bn	₦90.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	876	503	₦4.2bn	₦4.2bn	43%	2.6 yr
Anchor	653	450	₦4.94bn	₦4.58bn	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	317	216	₦348m	₦348m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	183	101	₦43.9m	₦43.9m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	159	84	₦316m	₦309m	51%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	66	35	₦87m	₦87m	45%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	52	46	₦14m	₦14m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	46	33	₦158m	₦158m	61%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	5	3	₦3.92m	₦3.84m	53%	2.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦168k	₦168k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	44,667	10,628	₦1.09bn	₦1.08bn	5%	16.6 yr
100 250m2	36,876	20,209	₦52.4bn	₦51.9bn	47%	2.4 yr
50 100m2	19,168	8,610	₦5.08bn	₦5.08bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	15,307	5,352	₦1.27bn	₦1.26bn	17%	6.1 yr
250 1000m2	11,159	6,506	₦38.2bn	₦37.1bn	49%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	67	48	₦3.75bn	₦3.51bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	64,612	34,450	₦46.7bn	₦46.3bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unclassified	42,552	4,954	₦14.8bn	₦13.9bn	5%	16.4 yr
Urban	14,268	8,711	₦34.3bn	₦33.6bn	73%	1.4 yr
Dense Urban	3,482	2,795	₦5.63bn	₦5.62bn	63%	1.6 yr
Rural	2,330	443	₦458m	₦456m	21%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	37,999	6,113	₦990m	₦990m	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Formal	36,323	20,990	₦11.9bn	₦11.9bn	35%	2.9 yr
Residential	21,555	12,216	₦69.2bn	₦67.8bn	63%	1.6 yr
Residential Small	18,193	7,562	₦6.9bn	₦6.79bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	10,501	2,853	₦2.64bn	₦2.64bn	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	545	363	₦3.32bn	₦3.16bn	45%	2.4 yr
Duplex	238	122	₦112m	₦112m	39%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	225	138	₦54m	₦54m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	206	75	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	191	135	₦568m	₦568m	69%	1.6 yr
School	175	118	₦383m	₦383m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	155	81	₦315m	₦309m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	127,195	51,353	₦102bn	₦99.9bn
Commercial	34	0	₦7.01m	₦7.01m
Farmyard	15	0	₦41.8k	₦41.8k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	126,061	50,630	₦93.9bn	₦92.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	788	513	₦5.2bn	₦4.83bn	51%	2.1 yr
SME High	395	210	₦2.74bn	₦2.74bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	37,566	5,822	₦864m	₦864m
3.0	31,449	17,724	₦70.9bn	₦69.4bn
4.0	27,936	16,091	₦16.8bn	₦16.7bn
2.0	21,459	9,590	₦11.4bn	₦11.1bn
1.0	8,687	2,110	₦1.03bn	₦1.02bn
5.0	116	15	₦771m	₦771m
6.0	31	1	₦139m	₦139m