Oyo State

Rooftop solar in Ido, Oyo: what the roofs are worth

Ido has 243,837 buildings with a viable rooftop and 5.64 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦27.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

243,837

Usable roof area

25.1 km²

5.64 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦27.5bn/yr

19.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.1 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ido

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦27.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦27.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.55tn

NPV₦207bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.1 yr

Unlocked energy38.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity162 MWp

Capex₦161bn

Year-one energy value₦105bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.95tn

NPV₦789bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ido's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 162 MWp
Capital cost: ₦161bn
Year 1 savings: ₦105bn/yr
NPV: ₦789bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ido pays back quickly

Of the 229,427 buildings in Ido with a modelled payback, 49.3% pay back inside five years and 14.5% inside three.

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How much of Ido's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ido consume 64 GWh/yr but want 102 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ido

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ido actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 229,427 buildings with a modelled result out of 243,837 in Ido. 159,409 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years33,339 (15%)

Under 5 years113,077 (49%)

Under 7 years158,971 (69%)

Under 10 years189,626 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%185,599 (76%)

Above 15%159,409 (65%)

Above 20%124,851 (51%)

Above 25%54,424 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

60.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

38.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

251k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ido.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ido

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	89,534	18,300	₦6.66bn	₦6.65bn	21%	4.9 yr
D	54,931	11,285	₦5.52bn	₦5.37bn	19%	5.4 yr
B	54,829	11,565	₦7.72bn	₦7.58bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	28,862	7,646	₦6.4bn	₦6.39bn	17%	6.4 yr
A	15,681	1,085	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	238,527	47,793	₦17.5bn	₦17.4bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial General	2,244	845	₦5.04bn	₦5.04bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,126	412	₦158m	₦158m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	1,062	487	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	35%	2.9 yr
Anchor	470	204	₦3.49bn	₦3.22bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	271	106	₦94m	₦94m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	79	18	₦35.7m	₦35.7m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	33	9	₦71.6m	₦71.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	16	6	₦4.41m	₦4.41m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	8	0	₦3.1m	₦3.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦236k	₦236k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	94,111	19,840	₦10.8bn	₦10.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	55,442	10,506	₦767m	₦764m	5%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	40,735	8,126	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	15%	6.9 yr
250 1000m2	28,996	6,570	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	24,405	4,783	₦569m	₦568m	11%	8.6 yr
Over 1000m2	148	56	₦2.73bn	₦2.47bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	199,700	40,572	₦19.9bn	₦19.6bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	22,010	4,796	₦2.48bn	₦2.48bn	17%	6.1 yr
Unclassified	15,384	2,364	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn	13%	7.1 yr
Dense Urban	4,692	1,537	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	21%	4.6 yr
Rural	2,051	612	₦669m	₦668m	17%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	108,850	18,560	₦3.82bn	₦3.82bn	19%	5.1 yr
Residential	31,983	9,354	₦9.25bn	₦9.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	29,577	7,169	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	15%	7.1 yr
Shed	25,344	5,466	₦581m	₦581m	17%	6.6 yr
Residential Informal	19,254	2,925	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn	21%	4.9 yr
Apartment	15,040	2,832	₦571m	₦571m	23%	4.6 yr
Duplex	8,411	1,470	₦297m	₦297m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,129	416	₦159m	₦159m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	853	118	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	712	327	₦3.01bn	₦2.86bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial	653	485	₦2.53bn	₦2.53bn	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	430	197	₦506m	₦504m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	243,523	49,804	₦27.2bn	₦26.9bn
Farmland	236	77	₦230m	₦230m
Industrial	78	0	₦3.25m	₦3.25m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	240,759	48,598	₦19bn	₦18.9bn	21%	5.1 yr
SME High	1,622	626	₦4bn	₦4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,456	657	₦4.5bn	₦4.23bn	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	126,136	21,781	₦9.79bn	₦9.63bn
3.0	65,946	16,886	₦12.9bn	₦12.8bn
0.0	25,291	5,476	₦586m	₦586m
2.0	21,475	4,456	₦926m	₦925m
1.0	3,779	830	₦105m	₦105m
5.0	1,057	390	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn
6.0	153	62	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn